I'm not going to go too far into what if's in terms of what this means for the national GOP, the NRCC or conservatives in general. But at least for the next three days, what happened just a few hours ago means a whole hell of a lot for a lot of people. Dede Scozzafava's withdrawal was no doubt a shock even to those who had written off her campaign. The Republican National Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee are now forced to justify a sunk cost on  Scozzafava on the order of $900,000 and change, at a time when both groups are being outpaced heavily by their Democratic counterparts. And that's not even counting the task of bringing back conservative voters and leaders in the effort to join in repairing the bridges they jointly burned. That's a task that merits a blog post unto itself, and isn't even needed until we know how the results go out Tuesday night. But suffice it to say, if Chris Christie loses in New Jersey, Hoffman loses in New York and David Harmer loses in California, a lot of Republican staffers in DC better start updating and circulating their resumes.

But those what if's can wait. What does Dede Scozzfava's withdrawal mean for Democratic nominee Bill Owens and Conservative Party of New York nominee Doug Hoffman in terms of Tuesday's election? The short answer to that is that there remains a very real path to victory for both men. While Scozzafava has suspended her campaign, her name remains on the Election Day ballot, and absentee voters can still vote for her as well. Any votes cast for her are not transferable. Realistically, both of the remaining candidates can safely estimate Dede getting somewhere between 10-15% of the vote. Maybe less, but without any polling judging where her support goes between now and Tuesday, 10-15% is a safe, realistic, round number guess for either man.

Just as Chris Christie is most worried about a third name on the ballot sucking up votes, so must Doug Hoffman be most concerned about just how many votes Scozzfava lands up getting. Scozzafava's voter base was Republicans voters in the three most populous counties in NY-23, which was also Hoffman's weakest geographic region. Scozzafava's campaigning was the only thing keeping Owens from leading Hoffman in polls by DailyKos and Siena released Thursday and this morning. Those Republicans in that area who cast ballots already are lost votes for Hoffman in the region he needs to improve his numbers the most. Owens, on the other hand, does not have to compete with nearly as many lost Democrat votes for Scozzafava in these counties, leaving him with more time and money to seek more free votes. That is absolutely the path to victory for Owens, and a potentially fatal weakness for Hoffman, who already can't turn himself out and his family and friends to vote for him on Tuesday due to his residency problem (he lives in New York's 20th Congressional District).

But let's be clear here, Hoffman still retains the advantage going into Tuesday in the wake of Dede's withdrawal. Both Kos and Siena had Hoffman holding plurality support among self-identified Independents and around 50% support among Republicans, along with about 15% support among Democrats. With Dede out, Hoffman has the potential to rake in an extra 15-20% support among Republicans, 5-10% support among Independents, and 5% support among Democrats. If he can make those gains while jacking up Election Day turnout, that's a victory for Hoffman, and a potentially decisive one at that in a district that leans GOP in voter registration. He has the money to stay on the air and keep his message going, and he has a ground game that most candidates have fantasies about when they go to sleep at night, with literally thousands of volunteers banging on doors, making phone calls and waving on street corners for Hoffman.

By the classic 3M metric (money, momentum, message), Hoffman has all three things while Owens is lucky to have two at his disposal going into the final, crucial 72 hours of a campaign. In a race this close, the campaign with the better get out the vote effort is almost always most likely to win. But perhaps the final unique twist of an already bizarre race keeping Scozzafava's name on the ballot leaves Hoffman with a distinct disadvantage that may not just keep him from running away with a win. It may cost him the whole race. So keep the popcorn popping and the champagne on ice. This special election is not over yet and the fireworks are far from finished.