Crosshairs - Military Matters in Review

 Since President Obama’s 95th day in office, North Korea has detonated a nuclear device, launched a slew of missiles, and started moving a long-range missile to a launch pad in the country’s northeast. Furthermore, it declared that it is no longer bound by the terms of the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War, and threatened military action if South Korea searches North Korean vessels.

 The announcement from Pyongyang came on the heels of South Korea's decision to join the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), a group of more than 90 nations that was formed in 2003. Ships from countries in the PSI will stop and search ships suspected of carrying nuclear materials or ballistic missiles, in order to deter states such as North Korea and Iran from trading with them. North Korea warned that it would consider South Vietnam’s naval participation in PSI as a declaration of war.

 Meanwhile, the South Korean website at www.korea.net posted a notice saying, “The North's test is in contravention of the 1992 Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and agreements reached at the Six-Party Talks. As a breach of the UN Security Council Resolution 1718 that prohibited the North from conducting any additional nuclear test, it constitutes a provocation that can never be tolerated under any circumstances.”

 Dictator Kim Jong Il has ruled North Korea with tyrannical ferocity since his father, Kim Il Sung, (the “eternal president”) died in 1994. He funnels an estimated 20 percent of the gross national product into military spending, while the average citizen lives in an economic crisis under constant famine. Whenever Kim can, he extorts international aid which serves as free money.

 Because the army receives elite treatment, it would appear that a million troops would pose a formidable threat.  But defectors indicate that even the soldiers are suffering food shortages. Moreover, one defector was quoted by the Washington Times as saying, "If war breaks out, North Korean soldiers will run away once they become acquainted with South Korea." She added that corrupt soldiers guarding the border with China extort money from civilians trying to sneak across.

 For many North Koreans, the choice is to escape or die. Some 15,000 North Koreans have fled the country during the past decade. About 2 million - 10 percent of the population - are believed to have succumbed to starvation or related diseases in the mid- to late 1990s alone.

 Some analysts see China as a U.S. ally in contesting this confrontation, but North Korea’s warlike stance has placed China into a quandary for two reasons. First, China needs North Korea as a strategic military buffer. We must remember that Chinese troops crossed the Yalu River into North Korea in 1950 when American troops got too close to the border. Second, a collapse of the Kim Jong Il regime could send a mass of refugees across the border. China needs North Korea but doesn’t want North Koreans.  

 Rumors have circulated that 66-year-old Kim Jong Il is seriously ill. That could mean he is consolidating power. But what happens when a dictator steps down, or begins to fade? Remembering that Fidel Castro turned over his regime (sort of) to his brother, we might ask who is in the wings in North Korea? Three possible sources emerge -- Kim’s family, the military, and the party. 

 Within the family, heredity would point to the first-born male, Kim Jong-nam, 37, as successor, but Jong-nam incurred disfavor in 2001 when he attempted to enter Japan on a false passport. The second-born son, Kim Jong-chol, about 27, is seen as a contender. The third-born, Kim Jong-un, about 25, could be a possibility, except for being the most junior. To complicate the issue, the sons were born to two different women, and neither woman was married to their father.

 If one of the sons should succeed his father as dictator, it’s possible that the real power might rest with a member of the elite, 10-member National Defense Commission, or a leader within the party apparatus.

 The purpose of conjecture is to determine who has their hands on the trigger. And we don’t really know. This begets another question of whether the North Korean actions will create an arms race in Japan to counter a North Korean missile threat.

 In the meantime, South Korea’s 655,000 troops and America’s 28,500 servicemembers in South Korea are on Watch Condition II, one notch below the highest condition.

 U.S. Army Chief of Staff General George Casey said that the United States could fight an old-fashioned war against North Korea if necessary, even while operations against terrorists and extremists continue. He added that it might take a while “to shift gears” and convert from the counterinsurgency mode.

 Casey said it normally would take the Army about 90 days to convert, but asserted that it wouldn’t take 90 days to start. He then suggested that war with North Korea might not be the style of land war that U.S. forces in South Korea were expected to fight.

 Maybe North Korea merely wants to extort more aid money and concessions in return for yet another solemn promise to shut down its nuclear program. All the same, military analysts estimate that North Korea could get the long-range missile into launch position in 15 days. That would be President Obama’s 140th day in office.

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