The recent attacks of Israel on the Hamas controlled Gaza strip will probably end well before Obama is sworn into office.  But future attacks by Hamas, Hezbollah and Fatah will probably draw Israel into more conflicts which will end the lives of even more Palestinians and make the Middle East Obama's number one foreign policy area of focus over at least the next four years, if not beyond.

Thing is Obama needs to continue the U.S. policy of siding with Israel, the only other "liberal" (old meaning of liberal) Democracy in the region.  This is due to the Israel lobby of Jewish and Evangelical Voters who provide both money and volunteers to both parties and have been instrumental in the defeats of liberal Democrats who were seen as enemies of Israel like Cynthia McKinney vs. Denise Majette.

The end game will probably be as follows...

In the next Israeli parliamentary elections conservative Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party will probably win and end up organizing a unity government with the Kadima and Shas parties in minor cabinet positions.  These attacks that Israel is undertaking have been exactly what Netanyahu and his party have been proscribing as the answer to the rocket attacks by Hamas.  And Netanyahu is very resistant to pressure from outside Europe, is a proponent of building settlements in the Gaza, West Bank and Golan Heights, and a proponent of making Israel independent from US influence by building up their own industries.  Most polls are currently showing Netanyahu and his party ahead of his opponents, with most Israelis wanting security & safety restored.  Likud averaging about 31 seats to a 26 seat average for Kadima.  These numbers will change to Likud's advantage especially if Hezbollah opens up a second front in the war prior to the elections.

Hezbollah will probably attack in retaliation for this prolonged attack or some other slight, which will force Israel to eventually respond, whether this happens before or after the upcoming elections, I cannot say for sure.

This current attack will stop short of wiping out Hamas, which will allow Hamas to rebuild and reconstitute itself in the coming year.  Once rebuilt, Hamas will start their attacks again.

If the attacks happen after Netanyahu returns to power expect him and Israel's military to be un-merciless in their response until they have decimated Hamas and Hezbollah, with the world community's cries to stop falling on deaf ears.  Also expect Syria's military to be hesitant to enter into the fray, unless they know they have that other Islamic nations in the region will join them in attacking Israel.  Most of these nations will probably not be willing to risk it unless they know they have the military backing of NATO, China &/or Russia behind them.  Only the threat of U.S. military intervention on behalf of Israel either publicly or behind the scenes will keep it just to the terrorist groups versus Israel.

If Obama does nothing to aide Israel expect the Israel lobby to make him pay for that transgression by running a well respected Democrat who will paint him as an extremist in the Democrat Primary, this will force him to promise some level of support to Israel, probably a combination of diplomatic, monetary, and military aide.  He will be castrated in the foreign and national press as Israel's puppet, but knowing the political realty for him to remain in office he will take the blows in order to insure no credible primary challenge and to keep the Israeli lobby in his pocket so that they do not jump ship and support his 2012 Republican opponent fully.

Netanyahu's attacks will probably decimate the Palestinian populations in the areas from which the attacks are launched.  Most of those left alive in those regions will probably not be affiliated with Hamas, Hezbollah, Fatah, or any other Muslim terrorist or "former" terrorist group. 

Expect if Obama gets re-elected to a second term, him to appease Europe by having Rahm Emanuel help organize Israel to oust Netanyahu in the following Israeli election cycle.  This act will start the defections of "conservative" and "moderate" Democrats from being with Obama 70 to 90% of the time on all contentious issues. Most of the defections will be over military and foreign policy, but there will probably be some bleed-over into other policy areas like immigration, social and/or economic policy.  These defections will raise the ire of the anti-war crowd against these Democrats and start some infighting within the Democrat party.

As long as the West Bank leaders of Fatah are able to control their people to refrain from suicide bomb missions or rocket attacks and wait out Netanyahu's reign as prime minister they will probably be able to "re-unite" the Palestinian peoples and restart the peace talks with Israel with a two state solution in sight.  Once that occurs expect them to draw into a regional war the other Islamic nations in the region & most likely Russia with monetary and war material aide from China against the nation of Israel.  At which point with Obama in his second term, with nothing left to fear from the Israeli lobby will offer up some weak pleas for them not to attack Israel, while letting Israel be fed to the wolves in that region. 

Of course Israel in an all out war that may turn nuclear, thanks to probably to Iran, will by necessity stop their policy of surgical strikes and instead open up with a nuclear response for self preservation which may end up wiping out much of what is left of the Palestinian Arab population living in the region as well as the destruction of much of the population centers of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and possibly Libya, Sudan, Turkey, Iraq & Iran. This is due mostly to these nations putting military and intelligence resources near population centers for media purposes in case of attack.  Israel resorting to a nuclear attack will not only leave massive devastation but dramatically degrade the communications ability of the invading armies from being able to coordinate attacks, due to the electromagnetic effects a nuclear blast will unleash.

Whether or not Israel is decimated or wiped off the face of the Earth, Russia's military and the militaries of the nations in the region will be drastically reduced in numbers and effectiveness because they will be attacking Israeli territory which has been heavily re-enforced with defensive counter measures throughout that nation and with much of the civilian population in the reserves trained in military maneuvers and tactics.

If this scenario plays out like this, expect the Democrat party to be badly split as collateral damage from this war and Obama's reaction to it.  Also expect the Republican Party to capitalize on this and re-emerge as a force in much of the leadership roles in American politics.

If Israel survives and is victorious expect them to retake both the West Bank and Gaza Strip making them permanently part of Israel, as well as huge swaths of territory from attacking nations, including territory east of the Jordan River.  As for other surviving nations and the Palestinians in the region, expect them to be somewhat peaceful depending on what shape Israel is in after the war, while they lick their wounds.

For more on this situation go to: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/8457

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2008/12/23/us_warns_russia_against_selling_missiles_to_iran/

http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=MTI5OTA5NTE4OQ==

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7773658.stm

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1230456504736&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

http://www.israeltoday.co.il/default.aspx?tabid=128&view=item&idx=1869

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/129068

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1230456505833&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

http://www.israeltoday.co.il/default.aspx?tabid=178&nid=17854

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/129049

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1230456505080&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

http://www.israeltoday.co.il/default.aspx?tabid=178&nid=17853

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/129069

http://www.israeltoday.co.il/default.aspx?tabid=178&nid=17501