Crosshairs - Military Matters in Review

During his campaign, now president-elect Barack Obama indicated that, as president, he would talk with the Iranians about their nuclear programs and other issues with no pre-conditions. George Friedman, founder of Stratfor, wrote November 10 that just before the elections it was leaked that President George W. Bush might open diplomatic relations with Iran after the election regardless of who won. This would leave a sort of legacy for Bush while taking the burden off Obama for such a decision. But it would open a Pandora's Box that could give Obama his baptism by fire. Consider remarks by Michael Ledeen, author of The Iranian Time Bomb, during a presentation on August 4.

Ledeen, a former White House national security advisor and official in both the Defense and State Departments, explained the difference between what the Iranians say, what they do, and what Americans might think they mean.

What do they say and do, and what do they mean? For example, the head of Iran's armed forces announced recently that they have produced a new missile with a range of at least 300 kilometers. He claimed it uses technology heretofore unseen anywhere in the world. But -- no photograph, no particulars.

Then we saw another photograph not long ago. You might remember the one they published that showed four supposed intermediate missiles being launched almost simultaneously. Ledeen says that a close examination disclosed that the two-year-old photograph showed only one actual missile, a short-range one.

And that's not all. Not long afterward the Iranians floated a photo of a "new" fighter airplane. It was indeed a new model -- a plastic toy made by Mattel, with Iranian markings placed on it.

Ledeen says, "So the first thing to understand about Iran is that it is a country where lies and deception are a way of life." He adds that the Iranians have been at war against us for 30 years, and prior to 9/11 the Iranian regime was directly or indirectly responsible for the murder of more Americans than any other country or organization in the world."

How closely are the Iranians tied to Hezbollah? In the fall of 1998, the U.S. government indicted Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda. Part of the indictment reads that Al Qaeda forged alliances with the National Islamic Front in the Sudan and with the government of Iran and its associated terrorist group, Hezbollah, for the purpose of working together against their perceived common enemies in the West, particularly the United States. The indictment still stands.

But how could Iran support al Qaeda when Iran is Shiite and al Qaeda is Sunni? Here's the logic.

The Shiites (Iran) normally believe that religious leaders cannot function in government, while the Sunnis believe they can. But, when the Ayatollah Khomeini took over (Shiite) Iran in the revolution of 1979, he decreed that it was not only allowable for religious leaders to govern civil society, but indeed it was mandatory. And so it remains.

Ledeen calls the regime begun by Khomeini "Islamofascist," and compares it to those created by Hitler and Mussolini in the 1920s and '30s. And, although the press might portray things differently in Iran, the dictator makes all key decisions. The dictator is not Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the president, but Ali Khamenei, who is called "Supreme Leader."  Even the Revolutionary Guard Corps reports to him.

Israel, which considers Iran to be the biggest threat to its existence, has already weighed in on this issue. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who could become prime minister after Israel's general election in February, said November 6 that Obama should not talk to Iran so soon after taking office, warning that such dialogue could project "weakness."

So what happens if Obama does talk with the Iranians? It would be great to be optimistic, but Ledeen reminds us of what happened during the Clinton administration. The United States dropped sanctions against Iran, opened America's borders to Iranians for the first time since the 1970s, hosted Iranian cultural events, and unfroze Iranian bank accounts. President Clinton and Secretary of State Albright made several public apologies to Iran. Then Ali Khamenei announced that Iran was in a state of war with the U.S. and that settled that. Will this happen again?

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