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Hello, It's the Economy Again, Stupid!

Posted by: Jim Erwin | 10/01/2008 9:33 PM

It's a bird, it's a plane, no it's the financial system rescue plan, a.k.a. the "bailout". Portrayed like some silver bullet against a failing financial system, the $700 billion, oops! I mean $800 billion bailout, taking into account the new Senate improved add-ons, will have little effect on anything should it pass the House of Representatives this Friday.

The reason? Bad mortgage-backed securities and their underlying loan defaults aside, it's the economy again.

Even before the failure of Bear Stearns, the U.S. Economy was already exhibiting signs of stress. Symptoms of consumer fatigue in personal income gains and spending, along with rising unemployment, was becoming of major concern to many economists. Another danger lurking in the weeds is consumer debt. No one was really paying any attention, but clear evidence that consumers were having problems making auto and credit card payments was present, but ignored. Why? Too much focus on the sinking mortgage market combined with greed and ignorance.

One has to wonder what Wall Street executives and analysts were smoking in order to really believe millions of consumers could pay default-rate credit card payments, some imposed for being as little as one minute past a particular hour cut-off. Not thirty days, but one minute. In some cases consumer credit card rates were increased by more than 20% overnight! Tack on auto loans, insurance, food, gas, plus the hybrid mortgages, and you have a meltdown.

So, now we are faced with rising unemployment, a major curtailment in discretionary consumer spending, massive auto repossessions, defaults on personal loans and credit cards. But, the Congress is worried about people being able to qualify for more credit when they can't even pay for what they owe now. O'h and let's not forget the millions of consumers who now have damaged credit scores, who couldn't even qualify to purchase a fly-swatter.

The bailout we are told, is going to unfreeze credit markets and create liquity!!! What a joke. Is the government about to order everyone to all of a sudden start buying and selling securities in mass, so as to generate liquidity? The government  may be able to make Bank of America and Citigroup "take-under" other worthless banks, but they can't make investors do anything. And until parties believe the markets are stable and safe, and "confidence" is restored, it just won't happen.

Do we all get 20% raises to go out and spend? If not, I don't see how things get better anytime soon. Go back and look at the 1972-74 period. It was very unpleasant and painful.

How about a Dow Jones Industrial average fifty percent off the high, down at 7,100!

Even with the current calamity, banks resist re-working loans, and lowering credit card rates and penalties, and oppose any pro-boorrower legislation, but instead want to continue bleeding the consumer dry.

Standby...
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