The coming panic and pandemonium in the Obama camp
Posted by: Chuck DeVore | 09/08/2008 11:42 AM
Is it time for panic and pandemonium? Shrill attacks and over-the-top anger?
We will soon see, but something tells me that now that Senator Barack Obama has lost over 10 points in the RealClearPolitics.com poll average in less than a week (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html) we may see an all-consuming melt-down on the left. What was once going to be a pleasant walk in the park against an honorable war hero, a redux of President Bill Clinton's 1996 triumph over a similarly honorable Senator Bob Dole, is in danger of becoming a blow-out.
A month ago, who would have dared think such a thing, what, with the war, the economy and the general dislike of President Bush and Washington Republicans?
But Senator McCain's pick of Gov. Palin to be his running mate changed everything. The Party base became energized. Most importantly, Palin's real reform credentials enhanced McCain's own reform record - in effect saying to the millions of unaffiliated and disaffected voters, "We are not going to be business-as-usual in Washington."
McCain-Palin can legitimately run against Washington and all of its ills, chief among them a worn-out cynicism.
Amazingly, Obama-Biden has now become more of the same - only even bigger government and higher taxes.
Perhaps the biggest news of the recent round of polls was that Republican Congressional candidates are showing big signs of a turnaround too.
Sen. Obama still has a lot of strengths, mainly his huge reserves of cash and the lingering animosity towards President Bush - but to lose so much ground so quickly when he and his supporters have come so far and thought they had it in the bag makes him vulnerable to losing his cool demeanor. And a panicked candidate can quickly turn a close race into a rout.
I would not discount O-B so quickly. Here's how M-P can blow it - by keeping heavy on the attack and POW narrative, WITHOUT differentiating their platform on the core issues. Time to get specific... the Repubs have the right (or shall I say less wrong) platform... time to promote it.
In 1984 Walter Mondale enjoyed a nine-point bounce in Gallup's daily poll following the Democratic Convention compared to Reagan's four-point bounce. Goldwater had a better bounce than Johnson yet lost by a huge landslide.
Carter (1980) and Gore also bounced ahead in the polls after their conventions--but ultimately lost. Reagan and Bush didn't panic; I think it's very unreasonable to assume the disciplined Obama Campaign will do so, either.
It's very hard to make meaningful conclusions at this stage. Palin hasn't even been in front of the press yet and they have a list of serious questions to ask her. She has to face Joe Biden in her debate. Meanwhile, Obama's sessions with Bill O'Reilly will continue airing this week. Who knows how that will impact his campaign but Fox is clearly the network of choice for conservatives. Conservatives might find out Obama is not the bogey man they have heard about (but never seen).
I overheard an employee in a hardware store in rural California talking to a customer yesterday. The employee asked the customer (the two apparently knew each other fairly well) who he was planning to vote for. The customer said he was thinking about voting for Obama. The employee said, "What!? He's a socialist! Think about what will happen to your taxes!" The customer said he would think about that.
The customer didn't look like the type of guy who makes more than a quarter of a million dollars a year. Accroding to the non-partisan Tax Policy Center the Obama economic plan would reduce taxes on households with incomes of $250K and less by a much larger amount than McCain's plan.
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/UploadedPDF/411750_updated_candidates_summary.pdf
Once Americans begin to understand that McCain's plan would be similar to George Bush's people will naturally ask themselves: Am I better off now than I was in 2001? Most would have to answer: No.
They will then ask themselves: Will Obama's "change" be change for the better or for the worse? Based on tax policy, at least, the vast number of Americans will have to say "better". Democrats will be able to accurately argue that the Republican idea of cutting taxes on the rich so that the benefits trickle down to everyone else didn't work very well in the 1980s and didn't work at all in the Bush years.
Bob
Although I credit McCain's military service, I believe that choosing a candidate with hypocrisy (all over her dowdy face) was a desperate move. I hope that costs him the race.
Sarah Palin has solidified the platform differences existing between the two major parties. The electorate must now take deliberate steps to compare and contrast--and there are major contrasts--the positions of the two major candidates, laying aside the emotional appeal of an Obama speech or a McCain life story.
Change that causes America to deviate from the recipe that made her great is is illogical. Change that takes us down failed paths forged by Europe and Canada is irrational. Change that returns us to a spirit and form found during America's finest hours should be our aim.
Perhaps the trend in the polls is indicative of some deliberate thought processes occurring among voters. May the thinking continue.