Hillary Out by Week's End
Posted by: Scott W. Graves | 04/22/2008 3:26 PM
When will Hillary exit stage left? I am ready to make a not-so-bold prediction.
As I type this, the idea sounds a bit ridiculous. Hillary has been "running" for president for so long I can hardly imagine a time when she isn't running. While she has spent years casting an aura of inevitability, raising mountains of money, and leveraging two decades of political connections, it will not have been enough. Hillary is done.
But the pundits are still all over the map. Ask 100 "insiders" and your will hear 100 scenarios. Some worry about a brokered convention. Howard Dean is barking about giving the Republicans an undue advantage. Harry Reid mumbled something about being bitter. Nancy Pelosi is whistling the same superdelegate tune as camp Obama. And Drudge is once again floating a story about a joint ticket.
This is all just noise. Hillary cannot win (which is not to say she cannot get the nomination, but she mathematically cannot win). Without the math there is no money. Without the money, there is absolutely no clear path that puts her at the top of the ticket without destroying her party and disenfranchising millions of new voters.
So I think the perfect storm has FINALLY arrived. Her people, the money men, the party leaders, and the media will force her hand by week's end.
As I type this, the idea sounds a bit ridiculous. Hillary has been "running" for president for so long I can hardly imagine a time when she isn't running. While she has spent years casting an aura of inevitability, raising mountains of money, and leveraging two decades of political connections, it will not have been enough. Hillary is done.
But the pundits are still all over the map. Ask 100 "insiders" and your will hear 100 scenarios. Some worry about a brokered convention. Howard Dean is barking about giving the Republicans an undue advantage. Harry Reid mumbled something about being bitter. Nancy Pelosi is whistling the same superdelegate tune as camp Obama. And Drudge is once again floating a story about a joint ticket.
This is all just noise. Hillary cannot win (which is not to say she cannot get the nomination, but she mathematically cannot win). Without the math there is no money. Without the money, there is absolutely no clear path that puts her at the top of the ticket without destroying her party and disenfranchising millions of new voters.
So I think the perfect storm has FINALLY arrived. Her people, the money men, the party leaders, and the media will force her hand by week's end.
CATEGORY:
Hillary Watch, Making of the President 2008
WOW - are you serious!?
Didn't she raise over 3 million over night after PA? I don't think Hillary is done until Obama is crowned in late August at the convention.
She has a strong argument too, in my opinion. She won EVERY SINGLE large swing state. If even ONE of them was winner-take-all she would be the frontrunner right now. Thank you Mr. Dean.
You are probably right about the timeline and the closer we get to week's end, the more silly my post sounds.
With that said, the Democrats made their own rules and they (the rules) have served as the foundation upon which the campaigns' strategies were built. Regardless of what woulda, coulda, or shoulda happened under a different framework is beside the point. In the end (whether the end is sometime this week or later this summer) the fact that more votes, more delegates, and more states went for Obama will be the nearly impossible political hurdle. To anoint Hillary with the nomination is explosive and destructive territory for the Democrats.