It is not looking good for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and its prospect of keeping the status quo in the upper chamber.  Yes, I'm not even talking about Republicans regaining the U.S. Senate because just keeping the current amount of seats is an uphill battle.

This week, the Congressional Quarterly, a newspapers devoted to political activities on Capitol Hill and legislative campaigns, downgraded the open New Mexico Senate race to "Leans Democratic".  Incumbent Republican Senator Pete Domenici is retiring.  Democrats outnumbered Republicans in New Mexico 49% to 33%.  Congresswoman Heather Wilson (pictured above) is the establishment's choice to replace Domenici.

The prior CQ's rating for this seat was "No Clear Favorite".  Here is the newspaper's analysis:

A recent survey from New Mexico State University indicated Rep. Tom Udall handily led both Reps. Heather A. Wilson and Steve Pearce in a general election match-up. In a one-on-one race with Pearce, Udall would hold a 22-point lead (53 percent to 31 percent, with 16 percent undecided) while he would lead Wilson by 28 points (58 percent to 30 percent, with 13 percent undecided), the poll indicated.

And in what promises to be one of the most expensive races of the 2008 election cycle, Udall raised more money in the fourth quarter of 2007 than Wilson and Pearce combined, even though he did not get into the race until late November. According to the candidates' year-end reports with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Udall raised just over $1 million in the fourth quarter while Wilson raised $524,000 and Pearce raised $402,000.

With her earlier start, Wilson pulled in $1.5 million for all of 2007 with $1.1 million on hand by the end of the year. Pearce reported he raised $922,000 and had $820,000 on hand by Dec. 31 while Udall had $1.7 million in cash by the end of the year. All were aided by leftover funds from earlier campaign cycles.

With four months before the June 3 primary, Pearce and Wilson are already locked into a difficult battle. Wilson holds an advantage in fundraising and also has better name identification because she represents the Albuquerque-based 1st Congressional District.

Pearce's 2nd District in southern New Mexico lacks a coherent media market and although he is well known there, his name ID does not extend far beyond district lines. Pearce has already bought TV ads in the Albuquerque media market to try to introduce himself there, which political analyst Heath Haussamen said was an important strategic move. "It was a smart idea for him to get on TV early and try to craft his own image. He kind of has a blank slate across a lot of the state," Haussamen said.

Pearce is easily the more conservative of the two contenders. He is a staunch supporter of tougher border regulation, and Christine Sierra, a professor of political science at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque, predicted Pearce will come out even more forcefully on the issue of border enforcement as his campaign unfolds. Pearce has also been endorsed by the anti-tax Club for Growth, which should help with fundraising.

Meanwhile, Wilson is positioning herself as the more moderate one in the race. She told students at a forum at Eastern New Mexico University that she defined herself as a "common-sense conservative".

The two other prominent statewide office holders in New Mexico are both Democrats: Governor Bill Richardson and Senator Jeff Bingaman.  A pick-up by the Democrats will completely make this state blue.