The Importance of Florida
Posted by: Eniap Samoht | 01/28/2008 3:42 PM
Just over seven years ago, the race to become President of the United States was decided in the Sunshine State. The rest of the Country had voted -- Al Gore won the popular vote, but none of it mattered as they recounted the Counties of Volusia, Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade and Bush took the election by 537 votes.Early wrong calls by the media of a Gore win, along with most of the major networks incorrectly announcing that the polls were closed in the entire state, led to an uproar among Republicans of voter disenfranchisement. In 2004, early exit polls once again predicted a Democrat win, yet Bush carried Florida by five points; and with it the Presidency.
And as I write this now, we have less than 36 hours until the polls close in Florida for the Republican primary. On the Republican side, it has become a two-man race between Mitt and McCain, with Giuliani steadily slipping due to his lack of competitiveness in the early states. Combined with Florida being a 'winner-take-all" primary, and with only one week until "Tsunami-Tuesday", it is highly likely that a win here will seal the deal for either of the two front-runners.
So how did Florida become the end-all dictator of Presidential Politics?
Several points come to mind:
• Florida is a very balanced state. Democrats slightly edge out Republicans 4,130,000 to 3,820,000.
• Florida is a microcosm of the U.S. as a whole. One saying in Florida is, "The further South you go, the more North you get." This is a testament to the large number of citizens who have traveled to South Florida from Northeastern states such as New York and New Jersey. Florida also has large Jewish, Hispanic, Asian and African American populations; not to mention both large rural and large urban populations -- Florida has a little of everything.
• No Republican has won the White House without Florida since 1924, and no Republican candidate has won the nomination without Florida since 1972. This adds even more to its relevance - Republican's on February 5th know that our nominee will need to win here in November, and will most likely choose the one who can win here tomorrow.
Of course, this year we also have to look at the State's choice to move their primary up to the date it is now. Despite the loss of half their Delegates, the move was arguably a good one considering the national media attention the state is now receiving. All eyes are on the Sunshine State, and soon they will yet again decide the fate of our next nominee; and probably our next President.
CATEGORY:
Making of the President 2008
I'm glad you at least accept this as a two-way race between Mitt Romney and John McCain.
Anyone who thinks that Rudy Giuliani is still in contention, is probably praying for a miracle.
Observer,
Your perceptions are largely underdeveloped and sheepish to the media narrative. Had we followed your logic, John Kerry based on exit polls would be President today.
The truth is, Giuliani is the superior candidate and is the only one running on a clear and successful record of conservatism.
Tell me: What makes John McCain more superior on national security? The fact that he was 1 of many (including Giuliani) to support a successful policy.
Giuliani has experience implementing his own types of surges, running one of the largest clandestine security force in the country (NYPD), and reduced crime by 70 percent.
If you don't like Rudy, just say it. If you are just an observer, I hope you are more than capable of offering a littler more then reflective thinking.
Jonathan-
I think the Observer was merely stating that anyone who thinks Rudy still has a chance is praying for a miracle. He didn't attack Rudy and he didn't say he dislikes him either. He was just stating the fact that he thinks a Rudy win is a long-shot.
With that said, I do believe Rudy still has a chance. If there's a string a hurricanes, heavily influencing turnout projections, Rudy's absentees may put him over the edge. Short of that though, I don't see it happening.
For the record, if I had to pick between Rudy, McCain, or Romney, I'd pick the Mayor, so save the line about me disliking him. I'm also just stating the unfortunate obvious.
D'Anconia,
I am glad you like Rudy. More importantly voters shouldn't follow the media narrative, they should go with their convictions, whoever that might be.
In my mind, Rudy would be most competitive, with that said, voters shouldn't support a guy like McCain (who they disagree with on so many issues) just because they hate Hillary.
We should be a party of ideas...........in 2004 the Democrats took the any body but Bush route, and nominated a complete fool. Despite McCain's (narrowly spread) bi-parisan appeal, his ideological volatility will be nightmare come November.
I just hope the Rep's come to their senses and vote for this bold and courageous man (Rudy). I am still very positive, if for some reason he doesn't get it, it might just take us another 4 years to figure out he's most qualified.
Points well taken!
Deriter Cod
Hey I guess my sheepish perception and that of the media is right after all about Rudy Giuliani here in Florida huh?
It's one thing to spin, but it's silly to just make up stuff.