The wild gyrations of this presidential political season have taken Orange County politicos and financial big wigs through a series of unanticipated ups and downs like a Disneyland rollercoaster.

Senator John McCain, the frontrunner a year ago landed money men Don Bren, George Argyros and General Bill Lyons to lead his fundraising effort. These financial big shots had a sure winner until McCain's surge politics, amnesty support and general dislike by the rank and file reduced him to third tier status last summer. Chagrined, they wrote him off for dead. He is now the presumptive nominee thanks to a political season with parabolic bounces that leaves observers guessing where the ball will land.

Supporters of Rudy Giuliani like Anaheim Mayor Curt Pringle, Lincoln Club Chairman Tracy Price and financial backers like Paul Folino and Dale Dykema sit with their jaws dropped lower than Rudy's precipitous decline in nationa l polling. As recently as early December 2007, Rudy led by double digits in national polling and is now out of the race without winning a single delegate.

Party Chairman Scott Baugh, financial heavy hitter Hadi Makarechian, and entrepreneur John Clarey raised big money in Orange County to help finance Governor Mitt Romney's early state strategy in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. At the beginning of December the strategy looked solid when he enjoyed significant leads in many of the early primary states. Imagine their disappointment when he missed the gold in Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to place in South Carolina.

Political consultant Dave Ellis and conservative Family Action PAC men Larry Smith and Tom Bengard enjoyed the inevitability of Senator Fred Thompson's ascendancy as the only authentic conservative in the race. It turns out that Thompson was most popular when he wasn't an announced candidate. On January 22nd, after several dismal showings in the early states, Thompson withdrew.

Then there is Governor Mike Huckabee, the former Southern Babtist pastor who slew the GOP field in Iowa, but was unable to organize and raise funds to wage an effective national campaign. Not even the exuberant support of longtime Orange County activist, Buck Johns, was enough to carry Huckabee beyond the relatively small budget states of the January primaries.

Finally, we have Ron Paul. There is an odd sincerity to him that la sts for about three seconds until you discover he is a glassy-eyed raving lunatic who believes the Union was constitutionally wrong to fight the Civil War. Surprisingly he does have a few supporters in Orange Count y. They are not well known but ca n be spotted generally with a glassy-eyed look similar to Paul's.

Huckabee's stunning 9 point victory in Iowa lasted about one day until the trajectory of his bounce could not get him out of bible land. McCain's New Hampshire bounce lasted less than a week when he was beaten soundly by Romney in Michigan. Romney's bounce from Michigan propelled him to victory in Nevada but landed him in fourth place in South Carolina. And the bounces continued, through Florida, California, and beyond.

So, in the year of the parabolic bounce, Publius could never have predicted McCain would have climbed back to the top of the Republican heap.

The bottom line is that every first and second tier candidate (along with his high-profile supporters) has basked in the glow of front runner status and each has been written off at some point during this wild and unprecedented primary season.


The Political Backroom highlights the machinations of the OC political scene. Source s will vary, but the column will always be authored by "Publius," the pen name used by some of our founding fathers to publish the Federalist Papers at a time when publications were often and openly partisan.