For the last fifty years or so, the Great Lakes states have trended Democratic. Michigan is the leader in this regard.  For example, Michigan has not voted for a Republican President since 1988 and is currently represented in the U.S. Senate by two Democrats, Senators Levin and Stabenow. Governor Granholm, a Democrat, is finishing up her second term as Governor. She is term-limited out of that position. Illinois, with Chicago as the driving force, has followed a similar trend.  Wisconsin is also considered a safe blue state. Ohio is the most politically balanced. It currently has a split U.S. Senate contingent, but has a Democratic Governor. In spite of these tendencies, 2010 will present an immense opportunity for Republican advances in the Great Lakes region--Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio are states ripe for the taking.

Michigan Republicans are facing an incredible gubernatorial primary. Hoekstra, Cox, Bouchard, and Snyder are involved in a primary campaign that will last for months. Rick Snyder made the biggest splash recently by airing an ad in Michigan during the Super Bowl. His personal wealth and outsider perspective may provide an inside track. The general election will still present a challenge, but none of the proffered Democratic candidates are fear-inducing.   Unfortunately, Michigan Republicans will not be able to present a challenge to either Senator Stabenow or Senator Levin this year.

Like Michigan, Illinois is a state where local and national party figures need to express focus and optimism for 2010. Rod Blagojevich, Roland Burris, and Tony Rezko are divisive personalities that must be expressly tied to the Democratic machine in the state. An unresolved primary continues to loom, but Republicans Brady and Dillard undoubtedly pose a major threat to Democratic gubernatorial nominee, and Blagojevich compatriot, Pat Quinn. To make matters even better, the Democratic Lieutenant Governor nominee, Scott Cohen, has dropped out because of revelations that he has a history of domestic violence and may be dating a prostitute. The U.S. Senate nominee Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, a Blagojevich-Obama cohort, is the State Treasurer. The Republican nominee is moderate Mark Kirk. It is realistic to believe that Republicans can nab both Obama’s Senate seat and the governorship.

In Ohio, the likely Republican nominee for Voinovich’s Senate seat, Rob Portman, is running near the Democratic challengers in recent polls, but is not well-known and is facing low name-recognition. Republican John Kasich is faring well in a match-up against current Governor Ted Strickland.  Portman must win to keep Republican control of the Senate; a Kasich win would be an incredible bonus.

I am incredibly biased, but based on this assessment, the Great Lakes region should be near the forefront of the national GOP’s efforts in 2010. The rust-belt states are facing high unemployment, declining tax bases, and an unenthusiastic future outlook. A pro-business agenda that sparks growth in Michigan, Illinois, or Ohio could be a major resume booster for any Republican aspirant for national office. Also, with citizens looking for answers, these states would provide a “laboratory” for innovative policy ideas. The labor stronghold is not what it once was, and the commitment to status-quo paradigms is weak given the economic environment.  Lastly, the downside is almost non-existent because the possibility of further decline in these states is remote.

The national GOP faces little risk in going all-in for the Great Lakes states.

I am going to post more on Governor Granholm's last "State of the State" address in the coming days, but here are my initial thoughts.

1. The first ten minutes or so of the speech were used, to great effect, to paint an incredibly bleak picture of Michigan's economy and the national climate. The Governor has been using this tactic for years because it absolves her of responsibility for the anti-business consequences of her actions. Essentially, hey its not my fault we've been suffering from the "decade from hell".

2. The speech was at its core a rah-rah rally for state-directed economic development. Green jobs, solar panels, tourism, GM, and Chrysler were the stars of the show tonight.  All non-favored businesses that undoubtedly struggle to cope with the Michigan Business Tax, unionization, and MIOSHA, don't seem to matter much to the Governor.

3. Too much bi-partisan clapping. C'mon Republican Caucus there is no need for group-think here.  The Michigan Democrats are sinking fast . . . let's avoid acts of solidarity.

4. Like Barack Obama, Governor Granholm does her best to exhibit a strong passion for the "people." Her policies may be devastating, but her rhetoric has always been empathetic and compassionate.

5. Favorite line of the night: "Saginaw Valley will be the Silicon Valley of green energy."  Does this line need any additional commentary?

6. Finally, I know that I'm not the only one who is relieved to never have to look at John Cherry for another whole hour. He constantly peered around the Governor while she was speaking. He did this: a. because he wanted the camera to find him or b. because he didn't want to appear like he was staring at the Governor's backside the whole time. Either way, his efforts were successful.

Enough for now. Hopefully, I will have some time to read the transcript and provide more in-depth analysis in the next few days.

Post your comments and thoughts on the State of the Union Address. Let's see if the gossip concerning a new centrist-message is true.

Today is the 37^th anniversary of the Roe v. Wade decision. Around West Michigan, churches, average citizens, and politicians are bringing attention to the unresolved political battle against elective abortions. Many churches are providing the theological and moral support to the fight by conducting Sanctity of Human Life services. My own church solemnized the occasion last week.

The fight for life is at a key crossroads because as the years pass the Roe decision becomes further entrenched in our constitutional law jurisprudence. The battle for pro-lifers, at this moment, must be on restricting the use of government funds to pay for elective abortions.  With Obama as President and Justice Kennedy as the swing vote, it is doubtful a major constitutional law shift is imminent.

Bart Stupak (D-MI), an unlikely champion of the cause, holds an extremely influential and important position. When the health care reform package passed the House, his amendment added language that absolutely prohibited the use of federal funds for elective abortions. The Senate version of the bill, in my understanding, is not as clear on this matter. If the Democrats decide that the best strategy is to just have the House pass the Senate version of the health care reform, Stupak will be the key. If he and other pro-life Democrats fold, it will be the Senate language that will become law. Let us pray and hope Stupak is not steamrolled.

If nothing else, the debate over health care reform has brought the pro-life issue back to the discussion table. Republicans must continue to hold the line on this issue. This morning congressional candidate Jay Riemersma, who is running for Peter Hoekstra’s House seat, expressed his strong pro-life position. With Republicans so far out of power, the 2010 elections are absolutely critical for the pro-life movement. Let’s face it; our position is much more secure with John Boehner as Speaker of the House. Citizens who are committed to the pro-life issue have reason to re-engage in the political process this year.

For an interesting discussion on the actual Roe v. Wade case, take a look at Justin Taylor’s blog on the Gospel Coalition website. He interviewed Clark D. Forsythe, senior counsel for Americans United for Life. Mr. Forsythe provides insight into the case, future challenges, and effective pro-life advocacy. 

Finally, as is always the case, a simple prayer for humble advocacy is the best starting point. I know I am safe stating that point in Grand Rapids. The topic of abortion is not an easy one, featuring strongly held moral positions. My hope is that our side of the debate overcomes our opposition by the outpouring of compassion for mothers, adopted children, and young people in distress. Actions spurred by compassion for those affected by abortion are more persuasive than invective slogans.

           This morning, Jordan Bush officially announced his candidacy for the 75^th District State House seat. The 75^th District encompasses most of northeast and southeast Grand Rapids. The seat is currently held by Democrat Rev. Robert Dean, who is serving his second term. Reportedly, Dean is going to be running for Bill Hardiman’s State Senate seat. Jordan Bush will be attempting to reclaim the 75^th district for Republicans. Jerry Koiman was the last Republican to represent the 75^th.

            Outside the now-defunct Alger Foods grocery store, Jordan Bush commenced the campaign. Endorsements from Republican leaders Jerry Zandstra and Rep. Justin Amash, preceded the announcement. Also, family and friends provided anecdotes to support Bush’s campaign themes of honesty, integrity, and principled leadership. Bush pointed to the less-than-vibrant Alger Heights business district as an example of the general economic decline that has taken place in Michigan. The empty buildings, with their dirty, un-kept, windows and stained exteriors, were a sobering reminder of state government’s antipathy to small business growth.

            Bush would join Rep. Amash as a defender of economic liberty in Michigan. Stressing his distaste for targeted subsides, tax credits, and the Michigan Business Tax, Bush disparaged the current bipartisanship support for ever-growing state government. Indeed, Republican support for many of the current flavor-of-the-day intrusive economic measures is disheartening.

            It is especially encouraging that Bush is committed to the 75^th District. Outside of Grand Rapids, a district like the 75^th, which is largely urban with many diverse communities, would undoubtedly be a safe Democrat district. People in West Michigan, however, seem to have a penchant for connecting to a place, location, or community. Bush was sincere in his desire to work for the district’s future prosperity. The current representative, Robert Dean, is an unmitigated disaster. His recent support of the auto-insurance-oversight bills, which were passed in the House, is just an example of his statist commitments. Such votes are congruent with the urban Democrat view of government. These policies fail urban communities time and time again, with little helpful response from the electorate. Bush represents an antithesis to this view of the world and offers a more productive, individual-centered, way forward.

            The citizens of the 75^th District would do well for themselves by supporting Jordan Bush and his campaign. The public mood is beginning to favor Republicans, but strong candidates and intelligent proponents of a free economy are required to really change the current environment. Jordan Bush is both.

Today, Oakland County Sheriff and gubernatorial candidate Mike Bouchard offered a new proposal for Michigan's economy. He is calling the idea the "Michigan Construction Jobs Now" plan. It is an interesting measure. The plan would allow  for a 12 month window whereby home and business building improvement could be completed with out facing a new tax assessment. This means that any new improvements to a building within the 12 month window will not result in a new tax assessment; the owner would pay the "unimproved" tax assessment until the house or business is sold. The plan also applies to new home construction:

property with newly built homes completed during the 12-month period would be taxed at the value of the undeveloped land for up to a year after completion of the project or until the property is sold, whichever comes first.  After that, the property reverts to its normal assessed value. 

Bouchard is hoping that this proposal would provide a lift to tradesmen, businesses, contractors, and builders. I would agree that the proposal would provide a temporary lift. Tax incentives do shape behavior and consumer decisions. However, like Cash for Clunkers or the New Home Buyer Credit, this proposal may simply result in a boom-bust situation. All anticipated building improvements will be completed within the 12 months, but once the 12 months have passed there will be a steep decline in new projects. People respond to incentives, so any plans for improvements may be rushed to be completed in the tax-free window. I don't want to put a damper on a new proposal, but I think the recent government action to spur certain economic sectors provides an important precedent.

Furthermore, I would be very interested to hear what State Representative Justin Amash or the Mackinac Center would have to say about further targeted government intervention into the economy. At some point, state and federal governments have to resist the temptation to favor certain industries. How about a consistent tax break for all Michigan businesses?