I had written this post last night and learned this morning that Riverside County Supervisor Roy Wilson passed away last night.  My prayers are with the Wilson family.

I am not familiar with his record, but I believe he was a highly respected public servant in Riverside County, as there was near universal praise of Wilson in the wake of his resignation on Friday.  Wilson had also recommended the selection of Senator John J. Benoit (R-Bermuda Dunes) to replace him.

The vacancy in his seat occurred due to his Friday resignation, so the speculation over filling his Supervisorial seat has been in the aftermath of Friday’s events rather than the unfortunate news of his passing just five days after his resignation.  Consequently, I have decided to post my blog as written last night.

Riverside County Supervisor Roy Wilson announced his immediate resignation on Friday due to his declining health.  The political dominoes of his resignation could potentially resonate into Orange or San Diego County.

Why?  Because one of the leading contenders for this seat is State Senator John J. Benoit (R-37).  Senator Benoit has already indicated he would resign his Senate seat if appointed to the Supervisorial seat.

If Senator Benoit becomes Supervisor Benoit, then we could see Senator Kevin Jeffries or Senator Jeff Miller (among several other possible Senators).  A Senator Jeffries or a Senator Miller would give a chance for someone from San Diego or Orange County, respectively to become an Assemblymember.

In his resignation letter, Supervisor Wilson urged Governor Schwarzenegger to appoint Senator Benoit to replace him, and the Riverside County Board of Supervisors also voted 3-0-1 to urge the Governor to appoint Benoit to Wilson’s seat.  (The Orange County Charter fills a supervisorial vacancy by special election while the San Diego County Charter requires the other four supervisors to decide to fill the vacancy by either appointment or special election.  Riverside County has no charter, so the Governor fills the supervisorial vacancy with an appointment.)

Former Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia (R-Cathedral City) is said to be the other leading contender, as the Governor has a very close relationship with her.  Other major contenders are Benoit’s predecessor in the Senate, Jim Battin (R-La Quinta), and the Republican nominee who unsuccessfully sought Garcia’s seat when she termed out in 2008, former Palm Springs Police Chief Gary Jeandron (R).

Experts say Garcia would bow out on behalf of Battin (her former boss), but if the Governor makes it clear that he will not appoint Battin, she would seek the appointment.

However, Benoit’s appointment is the only one that would trigger a vacancy in elected office.  If the Governor does select Benoit, the potential candidates to succeed Benoit would be Garcia, the Assemblymen whose seats overlap with Benoit’s Senate seat, and former Assemblyman Russ Bogh, who was defeated by Benoit in the 2008 primary for the Senate Seat.

The Assemblymen who live in Benoit’s Senate district are Kevin Jeffries (R-66), Jeff Miller (R-71), and Brian Nestande (R-64), who succeeded Benoit in the Assembly.  Jeffries represents a district that has 80% of its registered voters in Riverside County and 20% in San Diego County.  35% of registered votes in Miller’s district are in Riverside County with 65% in Orange County.  Nestande’s seat is completely located in Riverside County and is almost entirely inside Benoit’s Senate District.

All three incumbent Assemblymen currently have comparable warchests, which they would presumably transfer to a Senate race.  The true test of money is to see what they each raised the last time they had competitive primaries, which for all three was the first terms in which they sought their Assembly seats (2006 for Jeffries and 2008 for both Miller and Nestande).  Jeffries last had a competitive primary in 2006 and had a warchest of about $400,000.  Miller had a warchest of $650,000 in 2008 while Nestande had $450,000.  Miller is clearly the best fundraiser but also represents the least territory in the Senate district.

The former Assemblymembers have even more sizable fundraising records but also had more money in their recent races.  Former Assemblyman Bogh had about $800,000 when he ran against Benoit for this Senate seat in 2008; Bogh had $500,000 when he ran for the Assembly in 2000.  Former Assemblywoman Garcia raised seven-figure warchests repeatedly but also ran in one of the most competitive Assembly districts in the state (indeed, after she termed out, a Democrat replaced her).

This race could be extremely divisive to the Riverside County establishment, as Jeffries and Miller are both former Chairmen of the Riverside County Republican Party while Nestande is the former Chief of Staff to Riverside County Congresswoman Mary Mono Back and the brother or Benoit’s current Chief of Staff.

Then, there’s the question of filling the resultant vacancies of local elected posts if a local elected official wins a vacant Assembly seat.

Should Jeffries win, it is within the realm of possibility that a San Diego County figure could win the AD-66 seat (in light of the district’s geography).  Should Miller win, it is likely an Orange County figure could win the AD-71 seat (in light of the district’s geography).  An immediate frontrunner would be Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Neil Blais, who won 44% of the vote against Miller in the 2008 primary for the seat.  Miller spent $500,000 while Blais spent $300,000 in that race.  Assuming every domino falls into place, it is entirely possible that a Riverside County Supervisor’s resignation could give AD-71 back to Orange County and produce a vacancy on an Orange County city council.

All of this is based on a series of assumptions of course.  First, the Governor must appoint Benoit; if he doesn’t, then this is all moot.  Second, one of the incumbent Assemblymen must win the Senate seat.  Finally, an incumbent local elected official must then win the Assembly seat.