Five Races to Watch on Tuesday Night

Video of Steve Beren speech on pro-liberty conservative strategy for 2010 and 2012 www.berenforcongress.com/evergreen.html

List of Steve Beren 2009 general election endorsements for Washington State www.steveberen.com/vote2009.html

There are five elections taking place Tuesday night which will tell us a lot about the direction of American politics as we head into the 2010 congressional elections.

President Barack Obama's economic and domestic policies are having severe negative effects on the American people. Rising unemployment, business failures, increased wasteful federal spending, and encroachments on liberty are causing a backlash in American politics. The prospect of record massive deficits and heavy tax increases is not sitting well with the American people, and even many who voted for Obama are extremely disappointed.

The Obama administration, together with the Pelosi-Reid congress, successfully pushed through the job-killing, counter-productive so-called stimulus package over Presidents Day weekend without a substantial discussion and debate. This violated Obama's campaign pledge of "open and transparent government," and led to a great deal of citizen outrage. This outrage has been expressed in the grassroots Tea Party movement, the townhall meeting protests, the September 12 Taxpayers March on Washington D.C., and the falling poll numbers for Obama and the Pelosi-Reid congress.

As we head toward the 2010 congressional elections, how much has the American political atmosphere changed? How much reason is there for optimism among pro-liberty conservatives, the Republican Party, and defenders of constitutional restraints on federal government power?

A good part of the answer will be revealed in the results of the off-year election results, especially the following five contests:

1. NEW YORK - 23RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
This is one of two special elections to fill a congressional vacancy. Republican Congressman John McHugh acccepted an appointment by President Obama to serve as Secretary of the Army, necessitating a special election. In 2008, McHugh had defeated his Democratic opponent, Michael Oot by a 65% to 35% margin. However, the district went to Obama over John McCain by a margin of 52% to 47%. Until Saturday, this was a three-way race between liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava, Democrat Bill Owens, and conservative Republican Doug Hoffman (running on the New York State Conservative Party ticket). Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Tim Pawlenty, Senator Jim DeMint, and many other top conservative Republicans endorsed Hoffman (although Newt Gingrich endorsed Scozzafava). After polls showed Scozzafava running third in the polls and sinking, she dropped out of the race on October 31. Hoffman has a very good chance of winning, and if he wins in a district that went 52% for Obama in 2008, that will be a great victory for the conservative movement and grassroots Republicans, and a blow to the Obama administration's far left agenda.

2. CALIFORNIA - 10TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT
Democratic Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher was appointed to a State Department job by President Obama, leading to the other congressional vacancy and special election. In 2008, Tauscher defeated her Republican opponent Nicholas Gerber by a 65% to 31%, and Obama took the district by a 65% to 33% margin over McCain. In the special election, Democrat John Garamendi faces off against Republican David Hamer. This is a traditionally strong Democratic district, so Hamer is not expected to win. But it will be very interesting to see if Hamer increases Republican turnout over McCain's 33% and Gereber's 31%. That will be an interesting barometer in measuring the depth of voter disappointment in Obama and the Democrats.

3. NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR
Incumbent Jon Corzine (Democrat) vs. challenger Chris Christie (Republican). This is a traditionally Democratic state, and Obama beat McCain 57% to 42% in 2008. Christie and Corzine are running fairly close in the polls. Christie has a fair chance of winning, but in any case it is very unlikely that Corzine in 2009 will get anywhere near Obama's 2008 total of 57%. Like the California special congressional election, the New Jersey balloting may indicate trouble ahead in 2010 for Democrats and President Obama.

4. VIRGINIA GOVERNOR
Virginia has traditionally been a Republican state, but Democrats have made inroads recently. The Democrats won the 2005 gubernatorial election, and Obama beat McCain 53% to 46% in 2008. This race pits Creigh Deeds (Democrat) against Bob McDonnell (Republiocan). The polls show McDonnell with a good lead of about 10 points. Conservatives and Republicans should be encouraged if this state returns to the GOP column.

5. KING COUNTY EXECUTIVE (WASHINGTON STATE)
Perhaps I am a little biased, but as a resident of King County, I am very encouraged by the possibility about this race. Ostensibly, this is a non-partisan race, pitting King County Councilmember Dow Constantine (a far left liberal associated with failed county economic and budgetary policies) against conservative-leaning former TV anchor Susan Hutchison. In 2008, King County went for Obama over McCain by a margin of 70% to 28%. At this time, the race looks close, and Hutchison has been leading in the polls (though not by much). Constantine has waged a very aggressive, negative, and divisive campaign, and has made a strong point of emphasizing his support for President Obama, unrestricted abortion, and so-called "environmentalism." A victory for Susan Hutchison would open up an important opportunity for political change in one of the most liberal Democratic-leaning counties in the nation.