In light of Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi’s victory in the Democratic primary for the 10th Congressional district last Tuesday, speculation is rampant as to who Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger will appoint to replace Garamendi, who is widely expected to win the November 3 runoff election.
 
If the Governor picks a current elected official, the appointment will set off a round of political dominoes in at least one region or possibly the entire state.
 
However, the Governor’s pick must be confirmed by both the Assembly and the Senate.  Where this is interesting is that Senator Jeff Denham (R-Merced) is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor while Senate Majority Leader Dean Florez (D-Shafter) is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.  Senators Sam Aanestad (R-Grass Valley) and Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) are also in the mix for the Lieutenant Governor’s race.  Will these four Senators try to block confirmation of Schwarzenegger’s pick?
 
Capitol insiders say Schwarzenegger would prefer to pick a Republican (he did pick Republican Bruce McPherson to fill the Secretary of State’s vacancy in 2005 after Democrat Kevin Shelley resigned in disgrace).  Can he get a Republican confirmed who will seek reelection/the governorship/the US Senate seat, or will he be forced to appoint a caretaker who pledges not to run for reelection?
 
Without further ado, let’s take a look at the contenders.
 
SHORTLIST – REPUBLICANS
 
Gubernatorial candidate and former Congressman Tom Campbell formerly served as Schwarzenegger’s Director of Finance, overseeing the drafting of one of the early Schwarzenegger budgets (back when Schwarzenegger was still calling for cutting spending and blowing up the boxes).  Campbell is believed to be one of Schwarzenegger’s favorites.  Making Campbell Lieutenant Governor would clearly strengthen his hand in the Governor’s race – indeed making the 2010 Republican gubernatorial race closer to the 1998 Democratic gubernatorial race (Lieutenant Governor running against a gazillionaire elected official and gazillionaire business executive).  Democrats might confirm him to mess around with the Republican gubernatorial primary.  It is possible that Campbell could pledge to drop out of the Governor’s race and run for reelection as Lieutenant Governor if confirmed, thereby making him a contender for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2018 when he terms out as Lieutenant Governor, but Democrats might reject him not wanting a Republican Lieutenant Governor for the next decade.
 
Senator Abel Maldonado (R-Santa Maria) represents a seat with a Democratic registration advantage.  Maldonado has repeatedly provided a free vote to the Governor and the Democrats on bills requiring a 2/3 vote (e.g. the budget).  Democrats would likely confirm him on the basis of gaining a seat in the Senate.  Maldonado has previous statewide ambitions having lost the Republican primary for Controller in 2006 to Tony Strickland.  Maldonado has done Schwarzenegger many favors, and this could be the ultimate payoff.  The most logical candidates to run for Maldonado’s seat are Assemblyman Bill Monning (D-Carmel), former Assemblyman John Laird (D-Santa Cruz), and Assembly Republican Leader Sam Blakeslee (R-San Luis Obispo).  All the money Blakeslee has raised as Republican Leader would allow him to dwarf Monning and Laird’s warchests and probably squeak by the Democrat in votes.  Senator Blakeslee would create two sets of dominoes.  There would need to be a new Assemblymember in Blakeslee’s district (the candidates running in the 2010 primary to succeed him would have to speed up their campaigns by several months), and there would need to be a new Republican Leader in the Assembly.
 
Former Assembly Republican Leader Mike Villines (R-Clovis) negotiated the infamous February budget deal with Schwarzenegger and delivered enough votes from his caucus to pass the original package while additional concessions were required to gain enough Senators.  It is believed this led to his eventual stepping down as Republican Leader.  Schwarzenegger could reward Villines for his role in the deal.  There would need to be a new Assemblymember in Villines’s district, so the candidates running in the 2010 primary to succeed him would have to speed up their campaigns by several months.
 
SHORTLIST – DEMOCRATS
 
Former State Controller Steve Westly holds a close relationship with Schwarzenegger, even campaigning with him in 2004. (Westly lost the Democratic primary for Governor in 2006 to Phil Angelides.)  Westly has vowed to run for state office again one day but has said 2010 is not the right year because he wants to spend more time with his family before he makes his next run.  However, Lieutenant Governor isn’t exactly the most time-consuming job, so this could be the perfect perch for Westly for a few years until his kids grow up.
 
Former Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg is also close with Schwarzenegger and served as a key behind-the-scenes figure for Schwarzenegger during the last budget negotiations.  Hertzberg has maintained his profile in Sacramento with his California Forward organization.
 
DARK HORSES
 
Former Mayor Richard Riordan (R-Los Angeles) is very close to Schwarzenegger, and the two had struck a deal that one of them – but not both – would run for Governor in 2003 during the recall.  Schwarzenegger ran with Riordan’s support, and Riordan eventually became Schwarzenegger’s Education Secretary.  California Democratic Party Chair John Burton, who was Senate President Pro Tem when Schwarzenegger took office, is also close with the Governor and has suggested Riordan.
 
Of the "Sacramento Six" who cast their votes for the tax-hiking budget deal in February, Senator Roy Ashburn (R-Bakersfield) is the only one who cannot serve in the Legislature beyond 2010 (the three Assemblymembers can become Senators, of course, while Senators Abel Maldonado and Dave Cogdill term out in 2012 and 2014, respectively).
 
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE BOX

Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) represents the most competitive seat held by a Democrat in the Legislature.  Appointing Correa would create an opening for Correa's 2006 opponent for this seat, former Assemblywoman Lynn Daucher (R-Fullerton), Schwarzenegger's Secretary of Aging.  Schwarzenegger is close to Daucher (indeed, she quickly got her appointment at the Department of Aging after losing to Correa in 2006).  However, Daucher would face a tough primary fight against Assemblyman Van Tran (R-Garden Grove), Supervisor Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove), or both.  Tran is running against Loretta Sanchez in 2010 but could abandon that race if the SD-34 seat came open.  Nguyen's supervisorial seat has a near-perfect overlap with SD-34.  Legislative Democrats wouldn't dare vote against confirming one of their own, and this appointment might represent Lou Correa's only chance to move up on the political ladder.

Gubernatorial candidate and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner would be a fascinating choice and would make him the frontrunner for Governor.  It would also create a vacancy in the Insurance Commissioner’s office, which would allow Schwarzenegger to fill that post.  Under this scenario, California politics could become the house that Arnold built.  However, this scenario would be unlikely, as I doubt Schwarzenegger would make the pick (the two are friendly, but not particularly close), Poizner accept this lower-profile post, and the Democrats would reject this nomination faster than you could say "vote."