As originally posted at CiceroWriting, my personal blog.

Welcome! This will be a little weekly-ish feature of the blog showcasing the top Election 2010 story for the Sunshine State. Check it out:

This week: The other big race.

The Sarasota Herald-Tribune, my local daily paper, gives a great outline of the Florida Governor's race. It's considered a foregone conclusion that Charlie Crist is going to be running for and barring a gay sex scandal with video evidence will be our state's next Junior Senator. With that open race all but wrapped up (despite some promising fundraising numbers for Democratic primary candidate Rep. Kendrick Meek), the state's political class is paying particular attention to the 2010 gubernatorial election.

The Democratic establishment seems to be mobilizing very strongly around Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, advertised as a pro-business, no-nonsense administrator that can win. It's possible we have just seen a preview of the general election, as she got into a pissing contest with state Attorney General and former Senate candidate Bill McCollum, when she castigated the Orlando Republican over the use of public funds for an anti-crime ad campaign featuring him prominently throughout the spots. McCollum is a study in unmet expectations. A capable politician and at one time a very powerful House member, the conservative has not translated his considerable skills into electoral success statewide, and as time goes by, his good ol' boy demeanor appears more and more anachronistic to a transient Floridian electorate. 2010 would be his last shot at redemption, and while for now he's committed to running for re-election as AG, he would take the shot for four years at 700 N Adams Street if he knows he has a chance.

While McCollum automatically earns a top seed in the Republican field, he's not strong enough to clear off some imposing challengers and an occasional second-tier opponent with upside. Kissimmee Republican and Agricultural Commissioner Charles Bronson (no relation to the late action film star) has confirmed he would look into running if Crist jumps into the Senate race. Former State House Speaker Marco Rubio (R-Miami) is currently prepping for a Senate run, but may well shift over to run for Governor rather than risk a thrashing from "Chain Gang Charlie", but has not commented publicly about his intentions should Crist run. Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Longboat Key) is a prolific fundraiser and former Florida Chamber of Commerce Chairman with a large personal fortune. In a field without McCollum, he would be a force to be reckoned with in a gubernatorial primary. But with McCollum running, he would likely be more inclined to stick with his safe House seat for now and wait to run for a statewide office.

While Sink clearly benefits from a wide-open GOP primary, her rising star label would be put to the test against any of the top four prospective Republican candidates. She faced a weak Republican opponent in a Democratic year to ascend to the CFO position. If the voters turn against President Obama between now and 2010, Sink will have to run a Grade A campaign to pull off a win, something she has never done even in the best of situations. This would make her especially troubled against a man like Bill McCollum, who has been at this stage before, albeit unsuccessfully. But right now, the Governor's race really is wide open and TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

Unless of course, Crist goes against what's been written off as an inevitability and runs for re-election as Governor. Then this has been a complete waste of my time.