A major fundraising milestone looms for Beth Krom: she needs to raise $250,000 by the end of this month. Can she raise that much? and if she does, will it matter? As I explain in detail below, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC)  is unlikely to consider Beth a serious contender unless she can also mobilize a new voting block.

The standard way to assess a congressional seat's competitiveness is the Cook Partisan Voting Index.  CD 48 currently has a CPVI +6R, meaning that past voting patterns suggest a generic, non-incumbent Republican should beat a generic non-incumbent Democrat by 6 points. Since Beth is facing a well-financed incumbent, CD-48 is generally considered "non-competitive."   CPVI matters.  Consider two recent examples here in Southern California: CD-46 has a CPVI of +6R, and Debbie Cook lost by 11 points to Dana Rohrbacher in 2008.  CD-50 has CPVI +3R, and Francine Busby lost by 10 points to Brian Bilbray in 2006.

Beth not only faces an unfavorable CPVI, she also faces a well-financed incumbent and a hideously expensive media market.  Thus the DCCC will take a "show me" approach to Beth's candidacy.  As in, "Show me that you've got something special to make this a real race." 

The DCCC are no fools when it comes to their own money.  They know that in 2008 over 95% of incumbents were re-elected. Moreover, most of the successful challengers had the CPVI leaning their way.  Only seven out nineteen successful challengers overcame a CPVI of +5 or more in 2008.

A close look at the seven races in which the CPVI was overcome illustrates what it would take for Beth to win. In four races the incumbents were badly wounded:  William "Freezer" Jefferson and the Tom "Abramoff" Feeney were tainted by nationally-publicized scandals, while Bill Sali in Idaho and Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado were so publicly toxic that their own party establishment abandoned them. In Sali's case, prominent Idaho Republicans endorsed the Democrat. The remaining three upsets were Virginia's 2nd District (22% Black), Virginia's 5th District (24% Black), and North Carolina's 8th District (27% Black), where Obama had strong coattails.

These 2008 results suggest that in order to overcome her CPVI deficit and get support from the DCCC Beth needs one or more of the following:

(1)  Campbell to make the national news with a major scandal, or

(2)  Campbell to alienate the Republican Party to the degree that prominent Republicans endorse Beth, or

(3)  a large, pro-Democratic voting block to turn out in unusually high numbers.

So far, Campbell shows no signs of alienating the Republican Party nor obliging the Democrats with a scandal.  Beth will need to mobilize a new voting block in order to be taken seriously. Since CD 48 is only 2% black, finding this heretofore unknown voting block will require some serious creativity

Beth Krom, like successful fundraisers Debbie Cook and Francine Busby, a is long shot.