By Rudy Cajka
A Short History
The 2006 and 2008 Congressional elections brought to an end a remarkable 12 year period for the Republican Party, and especially its Congressional wing. Prior to 1994, the Republican Party had not held a majority in the House of Representatives for the previous 40 years. This was due, in part, to the substantial conservative block of Southern Democrats who had little or no opposition prior to the Presidential contest between Senator Barry Goldwater and President Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
Subsequently, with a new growing conservative movement, the election of Richard Nixon in 1968 and ultimately of Ronald Reagan in 1980, the tide of automatic Democrat House and Senate election wins in the southern states slowly came to an end. The end for Democrats in the House of Representatives finally came in 1994 when a newly empowered Republican Party under the leadership of Newt Gingrich was united under the Contract with America and soundly defeated the Democrats.
The Contract with America was a revolutionary, well constructed conservative plan to cut taxes, balance the budget and end welfare as we then knew it. As a result of the Contract, coupled with major mistakes and arrogance by the Democrats (including the imposition of the largest income tax increase in the history of America and a botched attempt at federalizing health care and other excesses), the Republicans gained 54 seats in the House and became the majority party in 1994.
Sadly, Republicans lost their majority in 2006 losing 27 seats in the House, and subsequently extended their losses by 21 more seats in 2008. Losses of 6 Seats in the Senate in 2006 and 7 more in 2008, coupled with loss of the Presidency to a popular left wing Democrat in 2008, have reduced the GOP nationally to an ineffectual minority at this point.
Can Republicans Recover?
Can we Republicans come back from these devastating losses? Can we overcome the popularity of a new, charismatic Democrat President, a largely dishonest and hostile media, an apparently leaderless party, a dearth of new talent, a substantial number of Congressional retirements, substantial disagreement among the remaining party leadership, and a confused and disorganized response to the new Administration’s initiatives and programs?
Yes, I say we can and we will, and I propose to provide some potential good news. I am not going to predict that Republicans are suddenly going to recover or that Democrats are going to self destruct. What I will say is that there are signs and events happening that potentially bode well for the next round of elections and Republicans should not despair that all is lost or that recovery is impossible, though that is exactly what both the media and the Democrats would have us believe.
Polls
The method employed by most political observers to determine the present and potentially the future course of the political landscape is the intelligent analysis of political and issue-oriented polls. There are a number of established and competent polling organizations and these polls are regularly published in the press, on the internet and discussed in the media.
It should be noted that there are significant differences between the various polls. For example, some polls are very plainly biased and designed to influence rather than inform. These polls are often misleading and not reflective of the true nature or intent of the measurement. If one believes that most of the mainstream media has a strong liberal bias, and that bias is further emphasized with a political agenda, one has to question the validity of many of their published polls.
In a November 5, 2008 report published by the Department of Political Science of Fordham University , Rasmussen was rated the number one pollster (along with Pew) for accuracy in the November Presidential election. It is interesting to note that CBS, Gallup, Reuters/C-Span/Zogby, CBS/NY Times and Newsweek came in dead last (16 thru 20) in these pollster ratings.
In assessing Presidential popularity, and other electoral based polls, Rasmussen uses an automated polling technology, offers participants a choice between Strongly Approve, Somewhat Approve, Somewhat Disapprove and Strongly Disapprove, and, most importantly, polls only likely voters. I suspect that it is the latter technique of using only likely voter responses that make its polling numbers for President Obama’s popularity consistently lower than other pollsters commonly published in the mainstream media.
Like all pollsters, Rasmussen does use weighting techniques with the raw data to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. Based on proven comparisons with his polls and real election results, Rasmussen emerges as one of today’s most accurate pollsters.
For the above reasons, I rely almost exclusively on Rasmussen as the pollster of choice when I want to understand an issue or to assess a particular election or a candidate’s chances in that election.
So How are the Republicans Doing Now?
Despite everything you read and hear in the popular media, Republicans are doing quite well as of the date of this writing (4-28-2009). Let’s look at a few interesting numbers from Rasmussen’s recent polls. These numbers and the Presidential Approval Index image are taken from the Rasmussen Reports (4-28-09) and can be found at their website: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/.
Presidential Popularity:
Overall Obama Approval: 56% Disapproval 43%.
Presidential Index (this number is determined by the Percentage of Strongly Approval minus the Percentage of Strongly Disapproval):
- Strongly Approve: 36%
- Strongly Disapprove: 31%
- Presidential Index: +5%
2009 Elections
There are a number of elections happening in 2009, the most significant being the Governors’ races in Virginia and New Jersey. In the past, these two off-year elections have been good predictors of what might happen politically in the following year.
In 1993, Republican Christie Whitman defeated Democrat James Florio in a classic come-from- behind (23 points) victory, making her the first female governor in New Jersey’s history. In 1993, Republican George Allen defeated Sue Allen Terry for the Governorship of Virginia, overcoming a massive 30-point deficit. At the beginning of both campaigns, the Democrats were favored to win those races. But Republicans upset the favorites and the following year, Republicans won the House of Representatives, winning back 54 seats from the Democrat .under the Contract With America campaign.
In contrast to 1993, Democrat Tim Kaine defeated Republican Jerry Kilgore and won the Virginia Governorship in 2005. Also, in 2005, Democrat John Corzine defeated Republican Doug Forrester by a comfortable margin in New Jersey.. These Democrat wins in 2005 successfully foretold the heavy Republican Congressional losses in 2006.
So what’s happening in 2009 in the Virginia and New Jersey contest for Governor? The latest polls show Virginia’s Republican Attorney General Robert McDonnel leading all potential Democrat candidates for that race. Also, in the last Rasmussen poll taken for the New Jersey Governor’s race, Republican U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie has a strong 15 point lead over incumbent Democrat Governor Jon Corzine. I’m not predicting that these current Republican leads will turn into victories. I am saying that if these trends hold, it will be a strong precursor for significant House and Senate Republican gains in 2010.
2010 Elections
The 2010 elections are still a long way off and many things can happen between now and November 2, 2010. The outcome will depend to a large extent on the state of the economy and the perception by the electorate that a better balance of Republicans and Democrats in Congress will be better for America., coupled with the GOP’s ability to communicate its conservative, problem-solving message.
From a pure numbers perspective, here is what we are looking at:
- The Republicans currently need 40 Seats in the U.S. House of Representatives to regain control of the House.
- According to the Cook Political Report, one of the leading analysts for United States political elections, there are currently 28 House Seats which could be in play. It would require a substantial shift to the Republican Party for the
- GOP to take a majority number of these seats in 2010.
- However, there are 49 House Democrats whose districts were carried by John McCain in the 2008 Presidential Election.
- On the negative side, there are 34 House Republicans whose districts were carried by Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election.
- After Sen. Spector’s recent defection, in the U.S. Senate, there are 57 Democrats, 40 Republicans, two Independents and one vacancy (Minnesota). In reality, the two Independents are voting Democrats, so it’s 59 Democrats and 40
- Republicans. When Franken is certified, which I expect will happen shortly, it will be 60 Democrats and 40 Republicans, and a probable filibuster-proof Senate. Thus, the Republicans need to win 11 Senate Seats to take back the Senate.
U.S. House Races
Every Congressional seat is up for re-election every two years, and it certainly appears that the best prospects for Republican gains next year will be in the House of Representatives. The numbers and history point to Republicans taking back a good number of seats in the House next year. Much will depend on the conditions in the economy and other issues that are impossible to predict at this time. But in any event, a strong Victory plan by the GOP is a must.
U.S. Senate Races
The United States Senate is a different issue and a potential problem for the Republican Party in 2010. Even though the Republicans have a substantially reduced presence today in the Senate with only 40 Members, both the GOP and the Democrats each must defend 18 seats in 2010. Additionally, there are some key Republican retirements making those seats more vulnerable to a Democrat takeover.
Despite all of that, I see a possibility of an even split or possibly a net gain of one seat notwithstanding all of the challenges that Republicans face in the Senate. Here are the best chances for Republicans to win Senate Seats in 2010:
- Nevada (Yes, Sen. Harry Reid is currently in trouble in Nevada.)
- Colorado (A poor choice by Gov. Bill Ritter to replace Sen. Ken Salazar gives Republicans an opening here.)
- Illinois (Appointment of Sen. Roland Burris by ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevitch along with massive corruption in Illinois may prompt Illinois to go Republican this year.)
- Connecticut (Sen. Christopher Dodd has massive ethics issues and is currently 16 points behind the strongest Republican challenger.)
- North Dakota (Possibly competitive if Republican Gov. John Hoeven decides to take on incumbent Sen. Byron Dorgan.)
- Delaware (A weak replacement was named to replace Sen Joe Biden to hold the seat for Biden’s son, Beau Biden. Possible Democrat primary and charges of nepotism and dynasty may allow Republicans to take this seat.)
Here are the problem seats for Republicans:
- Missouri (Open seat. Kit Bond is retiring. This could be tough for Republicans if Sec. of State Robin Carnahan is the Democrat candidate.)
- Kentucky (Incumbent Jim Bunning is running well behind in the polls.)
- North Carolina (Incumbent Sen. Richard Burr also is polling very badly here.)
- New Hampshire (Tough state for GOP if Sen. Judd Gregg steps down, as is likely.)
- Florida (Sen. Mel Martinez is retiring. If Gov. Charlie Christ runs Republicans should win. Otherwise it’s a tossup race.)
- Pennsylvania (With the announcement of Sen. Arlen Specter’s switch from the Republican to Democratic Party, this race is in considerable flux. Pat Toomey was challenging Sen. Specter, and had a considerable lead. It is now unclear whether any other Republican will challenge Toomey. This could be a difficult seat for Republicans to win, but it is winnable with Toomey.)
- Ohio (Incumbent Sen. George Voinivitch is retiring. Republican’s best chance is former Rep Rob Porter and he is currently running behind all Democrats).
Other Polling Trends which Potentially Favor Republicans
The Generic Congressional Ballot is a poll that measures how voters would vote today for their candidates for Congress, if an election were held. According to Rasmussen’s polls, the latest figures are:
- 04/14/2009 Republicans 38% Democrats 38%
- Compare that to the Generic Congressional Ballot numbers on Election Day 2008:
- 11/04/2008 Republicans 35% Democrats 46%
- And compare these figures to the actual voting percentages in 2008:
- 11/04/2008 Republicans 44% Democrats 53%
- The Democrats are in a downward trend with voters.
There are also a number of recent Rasmussen polls which measure voter sentiment but do not directly relate to specific elections or candidates. Here are a few of those polls:
- Forty-percent (40%) of voters have a favorable opinion of the president’s budget while 46% have an unfavorable view.
- Two-thirds of voters (66%) think President Obama is likely to raise taxes on people who make less than $250,000 per year. That figure includes 47% who say he is very likely to do so.
- 63% of voters now say tax cuts would help the economy, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
- 81% say middle class tax cuts are important for the budget plan
- Just one out of- even Americans (14%) would like to see a 90% tax rate on earnings above a million dollars a year
- Only 11% of Americans think an institution will run better if it’s run by the federal government.
Conclusions
The conclusion that I come to after looking at all of the current evidence is that the Republican Party has an excellent chance of ending its slide and picking up a substantial number of seats in the House. As stated earlier, the Senate is a different matter, but at a minimum Republicans should be able to hold their current position.
Republican Party officials and activists should not be discouraged at this time. The TEA parties have energized Republicans nationwide, and follow-ons to these TEA parties are being planned all across the country. The political party out of power traditionally gains seats in the off-year elections and that trend seems to be showing up in the early numbers, especially the Congressional Generic Ballot.
Republican activists should be encouraged to go out and work hard, spread the word, stay positive and look forward to a Republican resurgence in 2010.
Rudy Cajka is a long-time Republican activist who is retired from IBM and does extensive political research.
