Without question, the last 9 years have been some of the more tumultuous years in the long history of the U.S.  From a controversial presidential election and a terror attack (not to mention two wars) to a global financial crisis and the worst economic performance since the Great Depression, this decade has been one of the more exciting ones. In responding to the various crises, both Democrats and Republicans have tried to draw from historical experiences in formulating their policies.

In looking back at the Bush Administration, the handling of the Iraq war was one of the primary causes of the Administration's undoing. The damage done to Republican’s is still being felt in that it helped to cast doubt on the long-standing public perception of Republican competence in foreign policy. Of all of the mistakes that were made in Iraq, perhaps the most critical was the lack of planning that preceded the invasion regarding what was to come after Saddam. While one cannot always plan for military eventualities and it is unfair to expect any President to be mistake-free in this area, it appeared that perhaps Bush was using the wrong historical template. The argument that transforming Iraq into a democracy would change the trajectory of the region may yet prove to be correct. However, it appeared in 2003 that Bush was using Germany and Japan in 1945 as his model. This failure to appreciate the many differences between Iraq and our enemies in 1945 undoubtedly led to many mistakes. The fact that Iraq is a multi-ethnic society with a history of tension between the various groups whereas both Germany and Japan were stable homogenous societies is but one example of  differences that were going to complicate any attempt to construct a western-style democracy. By using an irrelevant historical model as a template, the aftermath of major combat operations in Iraq was likely more difficult than necessary and the Bush Administration (and Republicans in general) suffered for it.

On the other side of the aisle, it appears that Obama and the Democrats have spent the last 8 months viewing the current economic difficulties through the wrong historical prism as well. The Democrats are looking to the American experience during the Great Depression (and the expansion of government that was seen in that decade) in crafting policies to deal with this crisis. Unfortunately for them however, Americans are not fundamentally a government-trusting people. The expansion of the state under FDR was undoubtedly due to the fact that America was facing 25% unemployment at one point during the Depression. A 25% unemployment rate at a time when most households were single income households meant that a significant fraction of the U.S. population was without any visible means of support. Today, the prevalence of two-income households and existing welfare programs makes it virtually inconceivable that America, even in this crisis, would see such an extensive level of poverty. Consequently, expansions of government programs and spending (and the resulting deficits/ tax increases) are more likely to be seen in the long run as irresponsible fiscal management rather than a necessary, though perhaps regrettable, expansion of state power to deal with a national calamity. The current difficulty that Obama is having in getting his health care plan through Congress despite overwhelming Democrat majorities in both houses is evidence that the American people are not suffering economically to the extent that the Democrats at least pretend to believe that they are. The use of the wrong historical paradigm could eventually prove to be a major political blow for the Democrats. The American voter has not been kind to politicians who have not been prudent in managing the nation’s finances. Just ask the Republicans.