We all know the well-worn wopper that the stimlus package was going to help keep unemployment from rising above 8%. Well, that one looks sillier every time we get an employment report. Today's, in case you didn't see it, crossed the psychological 10% mark:

Unemployment rate hits 10.2% in October

Of course, government unemployment numbers are like its inflation numbers: they're, um, subject to interpretation.

I'm not suggesting some Ron Paul-goldbug-Libertarian conspiracy here, but CPI, for example, is rightly called into question because the headline, or "core," number excludes food and energy from the inflation guage, which seems odd-- unless you think most of us could go very long without eating food or using energy!

Less odd, but worth noting, is that there are multiple ways the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates unemployment.

That 10.2% headline number, for instance, excludes two types of people:

1. Those who aren't actively looking for work but have indicated they want a job and have looked for work (without success) in the past 12 months. This class includes "discouraged workers" who have completely given up on finding a job because they feel that they just won't find one. This one strikes people as very odd because if you're unemployed for a year and a day, you're still unemployed, aren't you?
   
2. Those who are looking for full-time work but have had to settle on a part-time job due to economic reasons. This one's more debatable because those folks are working, but it's certainly a worthwhile segment of the workforce to measure.

When these two groups are added back, you get what the BLS calls its U-6 unemployment rate, which today stands at 17.5%.

Ouch.

By the way: for the headline number, the peak level of unemployment during the 1981-82 recession, the worst since the Depression, was 10.8%, and that was exacerbated in the short run because we were doing then what we should be doing today: encouraging savings and strengthening the dollar through higher interest rates, and encouraging production and employment through tax cuts. It also happened to be the right long-term policy, as history has clearly shown.

Today, we have embarked on precisely the opposite course, and despite the crystal-clear evidence that the stimulus package is not working, soon the talk of a second such package will intensify-- bizzaro economics.

One last thing: don't be fooled by the stock market's rally; it isn't predicting recovery, but an inflationary surge which will lift prices of virtually all asset classes (though in real-- inflation adjusted-- terms, stocks won't be making much headway). And I say "virtually all asset classes" because the broken one from the previous bubble doesn't tend to participate in the following "recovery;" just like stimulus measures earlier this decade couldn't lift the busted technology sector, neither will today's measures lift home prices.

Today's policies are so horribly flawed that inflation and unemployment are sure to march higher. Indeed, the only question now is whether we'll top the 1982 headline unemployement rate of 10.8%, which is really no question at all (we will).

Yet despite the fact it is actually harming the patient, not helping it, expect more of the same bad economic medicine from Washington.

It's Jim DeMint vs. the establishment, that's how it's shaking out.

The NRSC and the rest of the establishment backed Charlie Crist in Florida; Senator Jim DeMint backed Marco Rubio.

The NRCC and the rest of the establishment in Washington backed Democrat-endorsing, Card Check-backing Dede Scozzafava in NY-23; DeMint endorsed Doug Hoffman.

Then, this week DeMint got the jump on the establishment in California by backing Chuck Devore, while the establishment has-- HUGE surprise here, folks-- lined up behind Carly Fiorina. Witness the press release being trumpted by Carlyfornia today:

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE  

November 5, 2009  Contact:     Julie Soderlund
 
Cristina Minasian

                 916-551-1383             

Carly Fiorina Endorsed By Senators Coburn, Collins, Graham, Kyl, McCain, McConnell, Murkowski and Snowe
 
 
 

Washington, DC -- Support for United States Senate Candidate Carly Fiorina grew today as she earned the endorsements of eight Republican United States Senators including Tom Coburn, Susan Collins, Lindsey Graham, Jon Kyl, John McCain, Mitch McConnell, Lisa Murkowski and Olympia Snowe.

“I am humbled to have earned the endorsement of each one of these distinguished Republican Senators. They are all dedicated public servants and it is a true honor to have their support. I look forward to working with each of these Senators to get our economy moving again and to restore fiscal accountability to Washington,” said Fiorina. “California is not getting the kind of representation it deserves in the United States Senate. In nearly 18 years, Barbara Boxer has only managed to get a handful of inconsequential bills signed into law and I don’t believe that is good enough for California. It’s time for a change.”

Each Senator made the following statement regarding their support for Carly’s candidacy:

“One of Carly’s greatest strengths is that she has never served in elected office.  Her frame of reference was shaped by the real world, not politics.  Our nation is facing serious economic challenges because we keep rehiring the same failed career politicians who have proven themselves incapable of making hard choices.  Carly's common sense and fiscal conservatism will be a welcome addition to the United State Senate.  I am glad to offer her my endorsement,” said Senator Tom Coburn, M.D.

“As a business leader and innovator, Carly Fiorina will bring great perspective to the United States Senate and she has my full support. She understands that Americans are concerned with the state of the economy and our expanding federal deficit and has the knowledge to help address those issues in a real way,” said Senator Susan Collins.

“Carly’s experience as a business leader has given her the knowledge and tools to help craft policy that will get our economy moving again. There is too much waste in Washington and we need leaders like Carly who can apply what they have learned in the business world to government. She is the best choice for Californians,” said Senator Lindsey Graham.

“During these tough economic times it is critical that we have leaders who can bring a dedication to fiscal discipline to Washington, and Carly is exactly that kind of leader. I am proud to endorse Carly Fiorina for Senate,” said Senator Jon Kyl.

“Carly Fiorina is a visionary Republican leader and I am proud to endorse her to represent the people of California as their next United States Senator. Carly is an outstanding business leader and I benefited from her no-nonsense way of getting things done when she served on my campaign last year. Carly dedicated her time, energy and intelligence to our cause working with Republicans at every level across the country,” said Senator John McCain.

“I believe that Carly has what it takes to serve as a U.S. Senator. She will serve the people of California and this nation with integrity, honesty and will fight each and every day to ensure that California is getting the kind of representation it deserves. I am proud to endorse Carly Fiorina,” said Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell.

“Carly is a strong Republican candidate who will put ego aside, reach across the aisle and develop real solutions to the problems we are facing. Her style of innovative leadership and ability to bring people together is desperately needed in Washington. I hope the people of California send Carly to the U.S. Senate next November,” said Senator Lisa Murkowski.

“Carly will help us create policies that will put Californians and all Americans back to work. Washington needs business leaders with experience who can help us restore fiscal accountability and get our financial house back in order. I am pleased to endorse Carly and look forward to working to help send her to Washington, DC,” said Senator Olympia Snowe.

About Carly

While she is perhaps best known as the former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Hewlett-Packard Company (HP), what is not as well known is Carly worked her way through undergraduate and graduate school. A self-made woman, she started her business career as a secretary and went on to become the first, and to date, the only woman to lead a Fortune 20 company. Click here to read more about Carly.
###

Olympia Snowe endorsed Carly? Susan Collins? Only David Duke's endorsement could be less valuable in a 2010 GOP primary.

Seriously, who wants the endorsement of some of these losers?

Carly made the right move by keeping her NRSC support low key; she made a mistake by not doing the same with some of these chuckleheads.

And I've already said this, but DeVore pulled of a coup by picking up the endorsement of the good Senator from South Carolina.

One DeMint is worth a thousand Snowes. Or Collinses. Maybe even McCains, for that matter.

We get it: the establishment backs Fiorina. Carly seems to think it's a badge of honor. In reality, it might be a bullseye.

Color me confused. For the last couple of years, the standard narrative out of the OC Register's editorial section -- as articulated by Steve Greenhut -- was the GOP is a quasi-statist party dominated by establishment sell-outs who only pay lip-service to liberty and limited government.

In two sequential OCR editorials this week about the NY23 congressional election, however, Republicans are chided for supporting a conservative insurgent over a quasi-statist establishment sell-out candidate who only pays lip-service to liberty and limited government.

On Tuesday, the paper opined on the Doug Hoffman-Dede Scozzafava fight:

"The race reflects a split in a battered Republican Party between conservatives and moderates, in this case more over social issues than economic."

Not to put too fine a point on it, but that is a extraordinarily uninformed opinion, one I would more expect from a left-wing blog that sees every GOP internal conflict through the hackneyed social-vs.-economic conservatives lense.

The conservative support for Hoffman and opposition to Scozzafava was due to her record on both economic and social -- in fact, it was more because of the former than the latter. Scozzafava supported card-check. favored Obama's $787 billion "stimulus" spending bill and had a track record of supporting tax increases that led the Democratic candidate to attack her as a taxer.

Today, the OC Register mischaracterized the situation in NY23:

"On the other hand, Republicans are fully capable of shooting themselves in the foot. In New York's 23rd Congressional District, held for more than 100 years by Republicans, populist-minded conservatives united around opposition to the party's designated candidate, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, deemed too pro-choice and too gay-friendly."

Huh? Again, Scozzafava record on economic issues put her squarely to the left of many Democratic members of Congress. Her husband is a local AFL-CIO honcho. To reduce conservative opposition to Scozzafava as being because she was "deemed" (as if it were a matter of opinion) "too pro-choice and gay-friendly" is absurd.

The OC Register opinion page is the last place I would expect to find "support anyone with an R after their name" sentiment. Given the House Democrats' lopsided majority, I'd like to know what is the point of electing a Democrat-in-Republican-clothing like Scozzafava -- especially when we have another shot at this seat a year from now.

That line of thinking reminds me of a recent conversation I had with a friend who was dismayed by that sentiment, held by a surprising number of party leaders. "If it doesn't matter what the candidate's philosophy is as long as we elect someone with an "R" after their name, then we might as well promise Barbara Boxer unlimited fund-raising help if she'll switch parties."

If the OC Register editorialists think the groundswell in support of Doug Hoffman was simply a social conservative phenomenon, they need to get out of that libertarian ivory tower and put their ears to the ground.

This morning, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi was sworn in as a member of the US House of Representatives, thereby leaving the post of Lieutenant Governor vacant.  I previously blogged about that here, but most people probably missed since the Mike Duvall scandal buried that post a short time later.

However, since that post, I've heard from multiple sources in Sacramento that there's a buzz going around the Capitol about the Governor appointing former Republican Northern California Assemblyman Stan Statham.  Statham is now a registered decline-to-state and is President of the California Broadcasters Association.  Influential politicians on both sides of the aisle who have the ear of the Governor are apparently lobbying the Governor to pick Statham.

There are several key factors in favor of a Statham pick:

1. The Governor has an excellent relationship with Statham.
2. He'd be a caretaker.  As a registered independent, he is of minimal threat to any of the candidates running for Lieutenant Governor since independents almost never win elections.  Plus, he will be 71 next year; if he were to run for the post, he would be 75 years old when the term expires.
3. He would be easily confirmed, as he is popular with current legislators from both sides of the aisle in both houses.
4. If picked, he would not trigger a series of special elections (unlike picking a legislator).
5. He's articulare and media-savvy as head of the Broadcasters Association, as well as a former television news anchor.
6. He understands the political process, having spent 18 years in the Assembly.

I've not heard other media sources covering this story despite multiple solid sources in the Capitol backing it, so you heard it here first on Red County: Stan Statham is a major contender for appointment to the Lieutenant Governor's post.

Tonight, Rancho Cucamonga Mayor Dr. Don Kurth has kicked off his campaign for State Assembly from the 63rd Assembly District which covers Highland, Loma Linda, Rancho Cucamonga, and Redlands.

Dr. Don Kurth is the front-runner candidate seeking to replace termed-out Assemblyman Bill Emmerson.

The event was held at the Etiwanda Gardens was packed with various elected officials, community leaders and business owners throughout the district.

Dr. Kurth stressed it is time for legislators to make the necessary hard decisions on the budget, water, education and other critical issues that affect every Californians.

Tonight event had a Special Guest Wally Kurth, Don Kurth's cousin, who is a famous Daytime Television Actor on Days of Our Lives and formerly General Hospital.

In what can only be described as a tremendous boost for Chuck DeVore and his bid for the GOP Senate nomination in California, tonight he picked up the endorsement of the Senate's leading conservative, Senator Jim DeMint.

DeMint has been the most prominent D.C. insider who has consistently been on what conservatives would consider the side of the angels, having already backed Marco Rubio in Florida and tonight's headliner, Doug Hoffman in NY-23.

In what was sure to be an uphill fight for DeVore in terms of fundraising against the well-heeled Carly Fiorina, tonight's endorsement puts DeMint's following and resources--including, presumably, his Senate Conservatives Fund-- at DeVore's service.

Perhaps more interesting could be the impact a move like tonight's has for DeMint himself; if he can help a candidate like DeVore,who's widely considered a longshot, to win the nomination, it will greatly enhance DeMint's national status, perhaps even helping set the stage for what his supporters hope will be his own run at the White House in 2012.

With upwards of 4000 people on tonight's nearly 2-hour call with DeMint at any one time, and a number approaching 20,000 who reportedly connected at least for a short while, there's obviously a national appetite to hear more from DeMint.

At the very least, the timing of this move is clearly meant to ensure that this time, DeMint will be acting first with his endorsement. Recall that in Florida, his backing of Rubio came after Charlie Crist's announcement that he'd be running, and his simultaneous backing by the NRSC.

This time, DeMint gets the jump on the NRSC and its calculating leader, John Cornyn, who will absolutely be backing Carly Fiorina when she officially announces later this week. I can personally assure this because the arrogant Cornyn failed to even mention DeVore's name when addressing a small gathering of Orange County's key GOP donors in August--at a private club in DeVore's own district!

With DeMint backing DeVore, it will be interesting to see whether the NRSC backing will help Carly more than it hurts her, as recent polls in Florida show that something is hanging like a lead weight on Crist's poll numbers.

The Hoffman/Rubio conservative Republicans who have been emboldened by recent events can now be counted on to turn their attention and resources in DeVore's direction. This development alone could make California's Senate primary very interesting.

It's a huge pickup for Chuck DeVore, and a hugely interesting move by DeMint, to say the least.