With Democratic-led health care legislation, Hennessey puts the odds at 60% that a "partisan comprehensive bill" will pass.  The good news is that he has lowered his expectations from his previous number of 70%.

He guesses that there's a 50% chance for a partisan Democratic bill to pass through the Senate with 60 votes, and he places the odds at 10% for a similar bill to pass through the Senate with 51 votes, through the legislative process of "reconciliation."

He assumes that it is virtually impossible for a bi-partisan bill (defined merely by the inclusion of 3 Senate Republicans) to be passed.  He writes:

Enactment of a comprehensive law is far from certain. The last two attempts to enact major health care reform both failed: the Clinton Health Plan in 1994, and the Patients’ Bill of Rights about ten years ago. PBoR seemed inevitable right up to when it died.

Here are my updated projections:

• Cut a bipartisan deal on a comprehensive bill with 3 Senate Republicans, leading to a law this year; (0.1% –> 0.01%)
• Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the regular Senate process with 60, leading to a law this year; (unchanged at 50%)
• Pass a partisan comprehensive bill through the House and through the reconciliation process with 51 Senate Democrats, leading to a law this year; (20% –> 10%)
• Fall back to a much more limited bill that becomes law this year; (24.9% –>10%)
• No bill becomes law this year. Process continues into next year. (5% –>29.99%)

I am therefore now projecting a 60% chance a comprehensive bill becomes law this year a decline from 70% almost a month ago. This is largely due to the slow pace of legislative progress. I believe the job gets harder the longer it takes.

Read the entire article here.

______________________________________________________________

Benjamin Hodge publishes the Web site KansasProgress.com, based in Johnson County, KS, in the Greater Kansas City area.  Hodge is a delegate to the Kansas GOP, a former state representative, and a former trustee at Johnson County Community College. You can join Hodge’s efforts on Facebook, through his personal Web site, on Twitter, and through his PAC.