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AD72 Special Election Watch: Looking Grim For Ackerman
By Matthew Cunningham | 11/05/09 | 06:35 PM EDT | 10 Comments
The latest campaign disclosures in the AD72 special election came out today, covering the period October 4 through October 3.
During that time, Linda Ackerman raised $166,070, for a total-to-date of $199,467 (interestingly, there are quite a few Fullerton addresses among the list of contributors, more than on Norby's). She has spent $196,568 thus far, and at the end of October had a cash-on-hand balance of $35,756.
Sup. Chris Norby raised $129,485 for the period, for a total-to-date of $188,835. His campaign has spent $158,733, and as of Oct. 31 had cash-on-hand of $60,311.
When you add in the approximately $130,000 raised by the "Alliance for California's Future," Norby has been outspent by a margin of 2-1. However, given the extremely compressed nature of the election, that's not enough for Ackerman to overcome the big advantages Norby had going in.
Plus, the natural order of things has been reversed: Linda Ackerman's campaign has been doing the negative heavy-lifting, while the IE committee's mail has been almost entirely positive, pro-Ackerman pieces. That has taken a toll on Ackerman, who didn't have the positive name ID and stature to go negative on Norby.
Yesterday, I spoke with a source who had conducted a very recent poll in AD72. The results pointed to a Norby winning the race going away. Furthermore, according to the poll, Ackerman's negatives were higher than her positives.This sources predicted a Norby victory in the mid-40 percent range.
That's not the only survey being conducted and circulated, and since the results will be similar in every poll, that would explain why the pro-Ackerman IE money has dried up.
Linda Ackerman, however, continues to fight on and fund-raise. Yesterday and today, she hauled in $12,900, to Norby's $6,600.
The rub, however, is the marginal utility of those campaign dollars diminishes with every passing day, as more and more absentee ballots are returned -- there are more dollars chasing fewer uncast ballots.
As of today, 22,735 absentee ballots have been returned. If one assumes 40% -- 32,000 -- of the 80,000 ballots issued will be returned, then about 70% of the vote-by-mail ballots that will be cast, have already been cast. And since, vote-by-mail ballots will comprise the overwhelming majority of votes in this election, there is a rapidly shrinking universe of votes to be had.
In other words, in a few days we will have a very strange situation in which the election will, for all intents and purposes, be over -- but we will have to wait a week or so for the official verdict.
TAGS: Chris Norby, Linda Ackerman, AD72
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10 Comments | Related Topics »Orange County (CA)
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Comments
While this is excellent news for the Norby camp, they should not get complacent. This has been one of the ugliest races I have ever been a part of. I hope I never have to experience this type of campaign again. I think in the end, the blowback to the Ackerman campaign was huge for all the negative mail they did. Couple this with her lower name ID and favorability....well, she cooked her own goose. The other lesson to take from this race is that you can actually win with a small government conservative message.
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|Now that's what I'm talking about.
Good post Matt. Fact filled and to the point.
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|It's pretty much the same as most of my posts, but thanks for noticing.
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|Going back to Norby's house for the third weekend in a row to pick up signs and walk pieces. I like the news but we (volunteers) can't let up.
Went to the Bill Hunt's event tonight. Chris Norby was there to support Hunt. After Chris Norby gets in... we need remobilize to get Bill Hunt as our next Sheriff.
I think some great things are coming legislatively and in the order of Law and Order.
Can I just say there is a HUGE power player in OC working tirelessly behind the scenes to get good people into office... Go Tim Whitacre!
Richard Rios
Brea, CA
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|I was a fan and a friend of Sen Ackermans. After all the ugliness in this election, I now see him as a dirty rotten slime ball. I feel bad for Linda, all though it just shows who was really pulling the strings...and doubt she never said stop the madness. I wish them the worst now!
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|Matt, good job on the facts, like the other guy said.
Matt, could you give us your take on the macro-political ramifications of a Norby win in the OC, especially since many of the GOP establishment supported Ackerman.
Does this win portend the change in the party that many of the electorate are feeling and could be said, will be showing as they vote in this race and other races next year?
Thought it would be interesting to get your view.
Thanks
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|I too feel bad for Linda because I think Dick twisted her arm to run and she never every had a chance. All she got for her trouble was a couple months sleeping on the floor of her friends home and perhaps any chance to ever run for a post she could win. I'd like to see her get involved in Irvine Politics but she will need to have the fire in the belly next time to have a chance.
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|Why do people believe Linda has no thought process of her own or lacks the ability to make decisions? It is insulting that everything that happens in this race has been attributed to Dick, both good and bad... I hate to assume that it's because she's a woman, but I highly doubt that anyone on this post has asked Linda what motivated her.
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|Young Republican, I think you missed the part where Dick blocked a KCAL reporter's access to the candidate and said "I speak for Linda".
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|Fringer, from another perspective I appreciated the fact that he blocked that loser Lopez from Linda at her event. That guy had no legitimacy, and anyone- staff, husband, whatever- who blocked him from interrupting that fundraiser should get credit. This campaign on all sides (Faher says adopt a cat?!) has made a mockery of the 72nd and its voters.
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