AD72 Special Election Watch: Fun With Numbers
By Adam D. Probolsky | 10/26/09 | 05:12 PM EDT | 3 Comments
If the election for AD 72 wasn't such serious business the results of the "Independent" poll released by direct mail guru Jim Lacy, would be funny.
I posted an in-depth analysis on the Flash Report blog but the poll just doesn't have much relevance in the Nov. 17 election.
The poll, which was not conducted by a pollster, but rather contracted for by Lacy and fielded by a Utah call center, surveyed only Republicans. In this election everyone can vote for anyone. So while GOP voters make up just part of the available voting pool, this poll would have you believe they are the only ones who get a voice.
The best part of the poll is when they ask if voters will vote. The response: 90% say yes. How silly. This will be a low-turnout election. And it gets better. Even those who say they won't be voting are asked who they would vote for. I wasn't aware of any new legislation that affords a special voting privilege to those people who choose not to vote or a rule that requires them to cast a ballot.
Of course I am working for the Ackerman campaign but even the most unbiased analyst would tear this poll apart as meaningless. It's not surprising though, there was no professional pollster involved in crafting or implementing the survey.
3 Comments | Related Topics »Sacramento County (CA) | Orange County (CA)
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Comments
OK Adam...you pollster guy you...what's your prediction on the race?
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|I notice that pollster Probolsky doesn't dispute that his own client is losing! Every poll shows Norby with a double-digit lead. Republicans are fed up with RINOs like Ackerman and want grassroot conservatives like Chris Norby who will reclaim our party from the Sacramento insiders.
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|My poll was entirely independent. I sent the results to the two campaigns at the very same time and did not coordinate with anyone or give anyone an early peek. The information is available to everyone at www.flashreport.org, and none of the questions are "push poll" or advocacy questions. So, it is independent. Today I sent out an HTML that mentions the cross-tabs research which interestingly reveal that Norby is leading Ackerman among permanent absentee voters by a margin of almost three to one, with just 21 days to go in the election. I am not an employee of any campaign in this election.
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