The phenomenon of a candidate who is listed first on the ballot receiving more votes than he or she would otherwise receive is true.

That’s why the Secretary of State conducts a “random alphabet” drawing before each election and why in statewide and regional races, the candidate’s names are rotated by Assembly District.

I would argue, however, that this phenomenon is applicable only in a regular election where casual voters have no knowledge of any of the candidates for races appearing near the bottom of the ballot.

There should be few, if any, casual voters on November 17. Virtually everyone who participates in the November 17 election should know exactly whom he or she supports.

Accordingly, unless he comes from a very large family, I would suspect that Mr. Faher will only receive somewhere between 100 and 200 votes.

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"There have been some studies that indicate that being first on the ballot can add as much as 5% to a candidate's vote total."

That's absurd.

Many social science studies have found very little systematic evidence to prove a correlation between being first on the ballot and vote share.  There is not a "primacy order" effect in most cases, and when the effect exists it is often VERY small (no where NEAR 5%) and that the effect is split evenly between primacy and latency (first AND last on the ballot).

I hate this myth that's propagated out there, that somehow ballot order can be as influential as hiring a good manager or a good consultant (which actually CAN have an effect of 5 points or above).

Nothing personal Chris.  Just my 2 cents.  

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And I predict that a crazy guy named Rocco will never be elected to the school board in the city of Orange...oh wait...that did happen.

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